When will the coronavirus pandemic end in the world: options for the development of events

Humanity has been unsuccessfully for more than a year and a halffighting the coronavirus pandemic. During this time, at an accelerated pace, it was possible not only to create vaccines, but also to begin to massively vaccinate people. However, it has not yet been possible to radically influence the situation. With the advent of new strains of Omicron, the virus has become even more contagious. A large-scale tragedy also touched Russia. The total number of victims since the beginning of the pandemic has exceeded 250 thousand, and the number of cases of infection has amounted to almost 8 million. In this situation, everyone must have wondered what awaits us next? When will the Omicron coronavirus end, and will a new strain appear? The exact date is unknown, because the further development of events depends on many factors. However, it is quite possible to get at least a rough understanding of what awaits us now. To do this, you need to familiarize yourself with the history of previous pandemics that have already occurred on Earth more than once.

Scientists do not give a clear answer when and how the coronavirus pandemic will end, but clues can be found in the history of previous diseases.

Content

• 1 How are illnesses treated?
• Will vaccines save the world from coronavirus?
• 3 When will the coronavirus pandemic end?
• 4 How will the coronavirus pandemic end?

How are illnesses?

Will the pandemic ever end and will we be able towe forget about the coronavirus forever? In the history of mankind, there were only two diseases that were completely eradicated - smallpox and rinderpest. The first disease was very dangerous for people's lives, as it killed about a third of those infected. The bodies of the sick were covered with painful blisters, while the virus affected the organs, which led to death.

The last victim of this disease in 1978 was40-year-old Briton Janet Parker. On May 8, 1980, at the 33rd World Health Assembly, it was officially declared that the world had conquered smallpox. The fight against the disease lasted for 10 years. As stated, humanity was able to defeat it thanks to global solidarity, as well as the availability of a safe and effective vaccine. A total of one and a half billion vaccines have been used worldwide.

As for rinderpest -a viral disease that affected cows and some other artiodactyls. Her last case was recorded in 2001 in Kenya. Both of these pandemics have been stopped by intensive and global vaccination campaigns. But it’s not worth hoping that in the same way it will be possible to completely defeat COVID-19.

This is what it looked like when infected with smallpox, a disease we forgot about

Joshua Epstein, Professor of Epidemiology at the SchoolNew York University Global Public Health argues that the eradication of a disease is extremely rare, so much so that the concept should be completely erased from our vocabulary of diseases. Viruses retreat or mutate, but they don't literally disappear from the global biome.

Most viruses that have caused pastpandemics are still with us. From 2010 to 2015, more than 3,000 people were infected with the bacteria that causes both bubonic and pneumonic plague, according to the WHO. And the virus behind the 1918 flu pandemic that ravaged the globe and killed at least 50 million people eventually evolved into less deadly variants of the flu. His descendants evolved into seasonal flu strains that periodically attack various parts of the planet to this day.

As with the 1918 flu, the virusSARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue to mutate. The human immune system will eventually adapt and be able to fight off the disease itself, but this will only happen after many people get sick and die. Therefore, obtaining herd immunity is clearly not what humanity should be striving for now. Says Saad Omer, epidemiologist and director of Yale University.

What other methods of combating coronavirus, besides vaccination, do scientists offer? Follow the latest research and discoveries in the field of medicine on our Yandex.Zen channel

Experts believe that the only, mostthe safe path is to find ways to slow the spread of the disease and deal with its consequences. Today, for example, pest control and good hygiene keep the plague at bay, and modern medicine can treat any new cases with antibiotics. That is, it is possible that the coronavirus will never completely end.

Will vaccines save the world from coronavirus?

In the fight against coronavirus, scientists have relied onvaccines. But how quickly can vaccines stop a pandemic? After the emergence of the Omicron strain, it became obvious that a third, booster dose of the vaccine was required. At the same time, doctors have already started talking about the fourth dose.

Another problem is thatvaccine distribution remains highly uneven. In the European Union, almost three-quarters of the population eligible for vaccination is at least partially vaccinated. In the United States, 68 percent of OA are vaccinated, as well as many countries in Africa. However, even if the entire population of the world can be quickly vaccinated in the near future, there is no 100% guarantee that this will stop the pandemic.

Vaccination may not protect against new, more aggressive strains of coronavirus

As we see, there are new variants of the virus,which are not only more contagious, but also better elude the immune system. Currently, Delta is the most dangerous mutation among all discovered. People who get even two doses of the vaccine get sick with it. Initial research indicates that Lambda strains may also be resistant to some vaccines. But the Omicron strain became the leader in terms of infectivity and the ability to elude immunity.

In essence, the ability of a virus to mutate rapidlycan completely cross out all hopes for vaccination. According to scientists, new strains will appear on Earth every 6 months. In this case, the pandemic may linger for a long time.

“Sometimes we take two steps forward and one step back,” says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

When will the coronavirus pandemic end?

The emergence of the Omicron strain in the fall of 2021seriously scared the whole world. It contains over 50 mutations. Almost immediately, it became known that the new variant was even more contagious than Delta. But the most frightening thing was that the mutated virus could be just as dangerous or even more dangerous.

However, good news soon appeared, perhapsfor the first time since the start of the pandemic. Many scientists almost simultaneously stated, based on their research, that Omicron, although more contagious, is less dangerous for people. In particular, a study conducted in the Western Cape province of South Africa reported that this strain is less dangerous even for unvaccinated people.

The Omicron strain was found to be more contagious but less dangerous than Delta

Later Regional Director for EuropeWHO, Hans Kluge delighted the public even more. In his opinion, Omicron can put an end to the pandemic in Europe. True, approximately 60% of the population must first be ill. After that, global immunity will appear due to the large number of infections and vaccinations. Seasonal features of the spread of the virus will also play a certain role (as the last two years of the pandemic have shown, the number of infections in Europe decreases in the summer). It is reported by The Straits Times.

Will the coronavirus end in 2022?The opinions of scientists on this matter differ. Many experts agree that new strains await us. However, the virus will follow in Omicron's footsteps. That is, it will strongly mutate, which will lead to an increase in its infectiousness, but at the same time a decrease in danger. This opinion is shared by the Deputy Director for Clinical and Analytical Work of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor Professor Natalya Pshenichnaya, as reported by Interfax. As a result, it can eventually turn into a banal seasonal cold.

Scientific Supervisor of the State Research Institute of Vaccines and Serums.I. I. Mechnikova, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vitaly Zverev expressed a similar opinion about when the coronavirus will end. The COVID 19 pandemic, he believes, will end when 80% of the population has been ill. This is expected to happen by the end of 2022.

Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vitaly Zverev expects the end of the pandemic by the end of 2022

Needless to say, this opinion is notonly Russian scientists, but also Western ones. For example, a professor at the University of Washington in Seattle, Christopher Murray, has carefully studied various indicators of COVID-19 statistics. According to his predictions, published in The Lancet magazine, the peak of the wave in Western Europe will last until mid-February. In Eastern Europe, it will probably last even longer, as it came later.

But, in any case, most of humanity toMarch will have immunities, as a result of which the number of new cases of infection will begin to decrease every day. After that, a new strain will appear. Christopher Murray admits that it may be more aggressive than Omicron. In this case, the number of new cases will creep up again. However, the disease will have a local character.

In general, most scientists give termsroughly the same. But optimistic forecasts are considered when the pandemic will end in the world. Do not forget that a characteristic feature of SARS-CoV-2 is unpredictability. For example, when the Delta variant was rampant in the world, virologists expected its mutation, but Omicron arose from a different strain and replaced Delta.

Coronavirus is likely to continue to mutate

It is possible that the new strain will haveunexpected mutations that allow it to bypass immunity acquired through vaccinations and previous infections. In this case, another wave awaits us, and how deadly and long it will be is anyone's guess. Is it likely that a new version of the coronavirus will be more dangerous than Omicron?

According to Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome Trust, one of the world's largest health research foundations, there is only a 40% to 50% chance of an optimistic scenario.

How will the coronavirus pandemic end?

One of the possible and most likely optionsevents - society will try to announce the end of the pandemic itself even before science does it. That is, people will simply put up with the severe consequences of the disease and even death, even if the situation develops according to a bad scenario. This has often happened with past pandemics.

For example, the flu is no longer considered a pandemic, butis an endemic disease. At the same time, from 280 to 600 thousand people die from this disease in the world every year. Of course, for such a development of events, humanity must learn to at least partially control the disease and prevent its scale, which we are seeing now.

The pandemic will end sooner or later, but the coronavirus will remain with us forever like the seasonal flu virus.

“If we can bring the number of deaths down toa certain level and return to normal life, it will be possible to say that the pandemic is over, ”says Jagpreet Chhatwal, a decision maker at the Massachusetts General Hospital, an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School.

When the global spread of disease is takenunder control in a certain area, it ceases to be a pandemic and becomes an epidemic. That is, when COVID-19 persists globally at what the WHO says is "expected or normal," the organization will call the disease "endemic." In this case, it will be possible to say that the pandemic is over. Experts have been waiting for this moment since 2021. And, he really could have come if the Delta strain had not appeared, which gave the pandemic a new impetus.

Scientists say that a good mood liftsimmunity, which is so important in the fight against viruses. Therefore, be sure to visit our Telegram channel, where we will cheer you up with funny memes and jokes.

Now, as we found out, there are chances that covidwill turn into an endemic, similar to the flu or even a seasonal cold, by the end of 2022 when. Whether this prediction is correct, we will soon find out when a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 appears. If it is less dangerous than the Omicron strain, it will be possible to exhale calmly.