Last week in London took placeThe traditional annual event at which CCS Insight presented its forecasts for the development of technology and society as a whole for the next 10 years. You can find several abstract assumptions in this list, but there are also specific predictions. There were 90 of them, but we will talk about the 14 most interesting and promising for us. And at the same time we’ll figure out what kind of company this is and why its analysts generally have forecasts about our future.
- 1 What is CCS Insight
- 2 Apple Privacy
- 3 Checking the status of the smartphone
- 4 When 5G starts to work
- 5 Mass facial recognition system
- 6 Fighting fake videos
- 7 5G Networks from Amazon
- 8 New Netflix Series
- 9 Automatic system for fixing violations
- 10 Samsung Galaxy Glasses
- 11 Testing employees
- 12 A new type of wearable device
- 13 When will home robots appear
- 14 Brain-Computer Interface
- 15 Virtual reality in the fight against the environment
- 16 10 year forecast
What is CCS Insight
CCS Insight is an English organizationwhich deals with forecasts and analytics. It includes specialists who have worked with equipment for a long time. The CCS Insight website even shows off a record stating that they carefully select their specialists and they all worked for at least 15 years in areas related to technology.
Part of CCS Insight's forecasts arepublicly available, for example, those given in this article, and the other part is done for specific requests for businessmen, investors and other people who need to know how this or that direction will develop.
Can you imagine? Scientists first kept brain tissue alive for several weeks
Every year, CCS Insight attends a conference,where her eminent analysts share their thoughts on the topic of the near future. This year, in addition to company representatives, many famous representatives of business and technology companies took part in the conference, for example:
- Cristiano Amon (President Qualcomm)
- Stefan Streit (Marketing Director at TCL)
- Olaf Swonti (Sunrise CEO)
- Daniel Rausch (Smart Home Vice President, Amazon)
Below are examples of what may change in the future, with a brief description of the pros and cons of such changes.
In 2020, Apple launches its Apple Privacy brand.
Pros: As usual, the pros of all the innovations of Applethey come to light only after a while. If the technology really works, we can talk about improving security. Apple is the company with the best specialists in the world, and they rarely make mistakes. There were cases of iCloud data leaks, but the accounts were not protected by two-factor authentication. Otherwise, from a security point of view, Apple can be trusted.
Minuses: The only downside is that Apple will gain even more influence in the market. But these disadvantages can easily translate into advantages if other market players can catch up and competition ensues.
Who benefits from this: It will be beneficial to everyone, since safety is never superfluous. Only those who want to take advantage of the vulnerabilities and cannot, will not be happy about this, since they will be closed.
Check smartphone status
In 2020, at least five operators will begin to offer subscribers an annual “health check” of the smartphone.
Pros: Recently, according to studies,users switched to a smartphone update every three years. This is due to higher prices for flagships and a slowdown in technology development. The emergence of a large number of service centers will simplify minor repairs. For example, battery replacement. Even Apple decided to expand the network of its authorized service centers, having certified all third-party services who want it.
Minuses: On the one hand, the appearance of a large numberservices leads to competition and lower prices, and on the other hand, changing their status to “official” will increase the cost of services. The second will definitely be a minus.
Who benefits from this: It will be profitable, first of all,to users. Even despite the price increase, they will get easier access to quality smartphone repair. As a result, they will not often have to change an expensive gadget.
When will 5G start working?
The appearance in 2020 of a large number of smartphones with 5G support on the market will lead to a drop in their prices.
Pros: The advantages of lowering the price are obvious - the price will be lower. Is it bad? And the good thing is that the advent of a large number of devices with support for fifth-generation networks will lead to an increase in infrastructure. The situation may become avalanche-like. Users buy smartphones - operators build networks - users buy even more smartphones - operators build even more networks ... And so on.
Minuses: Finding disadvantages in this development is difficult. Moreover, even despite the development of new technology, old devices will not stop working, as they will be compatible with new networks, they simply will not be able to use their full potential.
Who benefits from this: Again, consumers will be in the black, but also operators withmanufacturers will also not be in the loser. The former will receive increased traffic, and the latter will increase sales of various devices, such as portable routers and smart home gadgets.
Mass Face Recognition System
In 2021, a reliable detection system will appear in the crowd of potential attackers.
Pros: Crowd detection systems already exist and evenThey are able to make forecasts based on artificial intelligence. But they are often mistaken. It turns out that any person can be “pulled out” from the crowd for verification. As a result, he will be late for a train or plane or simply lose a lot of time. With a system that will not be mistaken, such situations will be almost eliminated.
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Minuses: Cons in such a system will be difficult to find. Especially if it will work correctly.
Who benefits from this: Law enforcement will be much easierconduct investigation and preventive work. As a result, ordinary people should benefit from improved security. If everything works as planned, and there are no abuses that many talk about, the pros will be just that.
Fighting fake videos
In 2021, a system for detecting fake videos will appear.
Pros: The way artificial intelligence and other meansvideo processing can do from one person to another video, just scary. To combat such videos, Google wants to create a special tool by 2021. There is no need to talk about individual advantages. For honest people, in such a system for determining fakes, in general, they are one solid plus.
Minuses: If you do not want to deceive anyone, then the minuses inSuch a means of dealing with fakes will not be for you. Indeed, false records can be used not only for jokes or rallies, but also to defame a person, and even for false accusations of crimes.
Who benefits from this: The tool to combat fake videos will be beneficial to everyone who can suffer from them. And, of course, Google itself. If it overpowers this task, then it significantly raises its authority.
5G networks from Amazon
In 2021, Amazon will acquire the exclusive right to use 5G networks in at least one country.
Pros: In a monopoly, you rarely find many advantages.
Minuses: Amazon is a cool company, but it is good where there is competition. If there is no competition in the communications market, the quality of communications will not be the best.
Who benefits from this: First of all, it will be beneficial to Amazon itself, which will receive all the cream from the market. 5G everyone will want to use. Even if the quality is not the best, Amazon will still be a plus.
New Netflix Series
In 2022, Netflix will have to look for new ways to advance, as the audience will stop growing.
Pros: Perhaps new interesting features will be invented, or just something from the old one will be worked out, but in any case the content will not get any worse.
Minuses: Cons in this situation can only be for the company, as it will need to invest in something new. There are no more minuses.
Who benefits from this: Ordinary consumers who will receive new content or even greater competition with other services will benefit from this. There, Apple TV + is already getting a little stronger. In general, it will be interesting.
Automatic system for fixing violations
In 2022, at major sporting events, artificial intelligence will be able to replace live judges.
Pros: Theoretically, the probability of errors will become lower, especially if living people will double-check the decisions made by the computer.
Minuses: Cons come from the pros. Now the refereeing mistakes are unpleasant, but sometimes they add very interesting elements to the game. For example, a randomly scored extra goal makes the match much more interesting. If these errors do not exist, the human factor will leave, which sometimes must be in any business.
Who benefits from this: First of all, if it’s not strange, it’s profitablebookmakers. They will be able to accept bets without the need for adjustments for random events. Secondly, strong athletes will benefit from this, since it will be more difficult to accidentally or “almost by accident” condemn them.
Samsung Galaxy Glasses
In 2022, Samsung will release Galaxy Glasses.
Pros: At one time, when many developed VR(virtual reality), Tim Cook said that he believes more in AR (augmented reality). After a couple of years, Apple began to demonstrate that these were not just words. As a result, she again turned out to be a locomotive. There have been developments in the AR sphere before that, but now it has gained the scope of hysteria. Everyone wants AR. The pluses are that the technology is convenient, if not abused, and with the advent of new gadgets it will spread even more.
Minuses: The human brain is not yet ready for itsees something that is not there. You go with glasses, you see an advertising post, but it is not. So you can start confusing real objects with fictional ones. Such experiments have been and their results make you think.
Who benefits from this: If Apple does not have time to release its solution, it will be beneficial for Samsung. If the market is already formed, the company will have a hard time, but we will benefit from competition - ordinary consumers.
By 2023, psychometric testing of developers will become commonplace. This is especially true for software developers.
Pros: Employers will receive more productive workers who can produce excellent results. All this will lead to improved products and reduced timelines for their preparation for release.
Minuses: Not the fact that testing will take into account everythingfeatures of the personality of the employee. It may happen that a small feature of the psyche does not alienate the far-sighted employer, but it is she who makes the person a genius. It is too dangerous to try to bring such a broad concept as a person to a common standard.
Who benefits from this: If the system works without failures, it is profitableit will be, first of all, to employers and good workers. The only question is what to do not so good employees. Will they lose any chance at all? Probably yes.
A new type of wearable device
By 2023, the lack of differences in data sets will force manufacturers of wearable devices to pay users for their data.
Pros: Since the development of wearable electronics is early orlate rests on its ceiling, and in the laboratory it will not be possible to calculate all the usage scenarios, development based on user data will be a significant step forward. So gadgets will become better and will show more stable results.
Minuses: Already, manufacturers have access to partsuser data. Just now they are impersonal and too messy. If you get access to specific users and pay them for their data, most likely this will affect the cost of production. However, it is unlikely that the price increase will be so significant.
Who benefits from this: Again we will be a plus - consumers. Improving the quality of any product is beneficial, primarily to us.
When will home robots appear
By 2025, every fifty home in developed countries will have a home robot.
Pros: A home robot is good. And even better, technology will make it available almost universally.
Minuses: The main thing is that home robots reallyhelped. Personally, I doubt that in 6 years it will be possible to improve the technology of their production so that they become truly irreplaceable assistants. And another question, are robots, for example, vacuum cleaners, considered robots? Even now they are already in at least every fifty houses.
Who benefits from this: The emergence of a new type of device is not so profitablethe consumer, like competition in the market for existing and almost indispensable gadgets, for example, smartphones. It turns out that, first of all, robots will become profitable for manufacturers, who will finally begin to harvest from their long-term investments.
By 2027, the brain-computer interface will move from the medical field to the commercial one.
Pros: This proliferation of technologies will lead tothe advent of new devices and gadgets. In particular, this can help in communicating with the robots from the previous paragraph. In addition, the expansion of technology will allow people with disabilities to use these interfaces, which will make their lives more complete.
Minuses: The main minus again will be somemisunderstanding of the future coming too fast. How much our brain will be ready for such innovations. If this works fine and does no harm, there will be no minuses in this phenomenon.
Who benefits from this: The emergence of this way of communicating with a computerIt will be beneficial to gadget manufacturers who can significantly expand their functionality. It can also empower people with disabilities.
Virtual reality in the fight against ecology
By 2029, the development of virtual reality and concern for the environment will reduce the number of business trips by 20 percent.
Pros: Since analysts give such a forecast, having weighed everythingfactors, this means that we will immediately get two pluses. Firstly, humanity will begin to care more about the environment, and secondly, virtual reality technologies will reach a new level in these 10 years.
Minuses: The development of instant messengers, telephony and other meanscommunication has already led to the fact that we almost do not meet each other, preferring to communicate remotely. The emergence of virtual reality will become another pebble in the garden in order to finally shut yourself up at home. As a result, we will communicate with the world through virtual reality, with the robot through the brain interface, and order food remotely. Not such a good prospect.
Who benefits from this: Let's not talk about sad things. Technology development benefits everyone. Like the fight for the environment. We all live in this world and we have no other.
10 year forecast
In addition to specific forecasts for the nearthe decade of the above, the conference discussed more general issues. For example, they talked a lot about the great burden on the global economy. This will affect all countries, not just developed or developing ones.
Technological nationalism was also spoken about. Experts called such a strange term situations when national governments use large technology companies as an instrument of their policy. China and Huawei were cited as an example.
In general, it was noted that in 2010technology companies have accumulated $ 1 trillion in profit, and in 2019 already $ 1.7 trillion. This suggests that such companies are gaining more weight and once again confirm the technological effectiveness of our time.
The relevance of the environmental struggle was separatemarked against the backdrop of the growth of such companies and the transition to even greater energy consumption, which must somehow be extracted. Even a simple transition to 5G networks will require significantly greater energy costs. Therefore, we must think about how to get energy without harming our planet’s “shaken health”.