General, Research, Technology

Why is quarantine the best way to deal with the CoVID-19 pandemic?

The CoVID-19 flash was a serious test forof humanity. It is important to understand that the world has never seen anything like it before - this is the first coronavirus pandemic in the history of our species. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that infect humans and animals. Some are the cause of annual and already common SARS, others cause SARS, for example, the infamous SARS - severe acute respiratory syndrome (774 people died) and MERS - Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (431 people died). However, if the SARS and MERS epidemics were stopped with quarantine and precautionary measures such as banal hand hygiene, the new coronavirus could break out of China, despite unprecedented quarantine measures, and Europe became the epicenter of the pandemic. But if European countries were quarantined immediately, and not after a few weeks, would this number of victims be reduced?

The empty streets of Chinese cities are both a beautiful and frightening sight

How effective is quarantine?

Journalists of the world famous and respectedThe Washington Post published charts showing the growth rate of the number of infected depending on the introduction of quarantine or its absence. Through simple mathematical calculations, it becomes apparent that if no action is taken to combat the spread of CoVID-19, then by May in the United States alone, at least 100 million cases will be reported. The fact is that the rate of spread of the new coronavirus is quite high - in case of complete inactivity, the number of infected people will double every three days. It is important to understand that this is pure mathematics, not prophecies and other nonsense.

Coronavirus mortality varies depending on the country, but on average is about 3%, while about 0.1% of patients die from the flu. Doesn't that sound very clear? Then here are the numbers: out of 100 people three die from coronavirus, and from the FLU only one in 1000 (thousands). Almost every one of us knows one way or another with a hundred people. Imagine for a second that three of them might die from a new infection. But on how to distinguish between influenza and SARS from coronavirus, read our special material.

Recall that social distance isreduction of contacts between people, as well as refusal to visit crowded places, such as metro, shopping centers, schools, universities, museums, cinemas, etc. - The most effective way to combat the spread of coronavirus. To verify this, let's imagine that a “zero patient” - the first infected one — arrived in a small town with a population of 200 people. If no action is taken, the spread of the disease will occur very quickly, as shown in graph 1.

Free distribution of coronavirus, schedule No. 1

In the case of increased self-isolation of the population - whenall residents of the city decide not to go outside and not personally interact with each other - (or as it was in China, when people were forbidden to leave their homes) the number of new cases of infection slows down significantly. Look at schedule # 2, impressive, right?

Schedule No. 2 - what does the distribution of coronavirus look like during complete quarantine?

Chart 3 draws a slightly different picture -moderate self-isolation. This means that a fairly large percentage of the city’s population remains at home and does not visit public places. However, part of the townspeople continue to go outside. The graph shows that the number of new cases of infection is much lower than in the case of complete inaction.

Graph No. 3 shows the spread with moderate self-isolation

Recall that all relevant information on the outbreak of coronavirus is available in our article, which is regularly updated.

But graph No. 4 shows what will happen if you enterquarantine, but then abruptly abolish it - after the introduction of quarantine, the number of infected people will begin to decline, however, as soon as quarantine is canceled, it increases again and this time more.

Schedule No. 4 - an attempt to introduce quarantine and its abrupt cancellation

Should all countries introduce enhanced quarantine like in China?

Despite the eloquent graphics, the introductionEnhanced quarantine, as it was in China, is hardly possible in most countries of the world. The fact is that at some point in time, the authorities in Wuhan, where the epidemic began, began to hammer down the doors of residential buildings so that people could not leave them. Mass blocking of roads was also effective when those who wanted to break the quarantine were deprived of such an opportunity. It must be understood that the measures taken in Wuhan are extreme and violate the rights of not only the sick, but also healthy citizens.

Indicator R0 for viruses determines the estimated numberpeople who may become infected after contact with an infected patient. For example, for measles, this indicator is 12-14, while for SARS is about 3. According to various estimates R0 for coronavirus fluctuates between 2.2 - 4.6. For example, in seasonal influenza R0 = 1.5. This means that the degree of distribution of coronavirus is 2-3 times higher than that of the usual GRIP

In reality, people will still go out anywayto the street. Caring for elderly relatives, the need for medication or walking a dog will not go anywhere despite a pandemic. So, in Italy and Spain, despite the quarantine, you can see people on the streets, this simply can not be avoided. Despite the fact that the charts above do not take into account mortality, they demonstrate the effectiveness of self-isolation of the population. You need to understand that the schedules are primarily addressed to people from all over the world - if you have the opportunity to work / study from home and keep street access to a minimum - do it.

Another reason to take a pandemic seriously is our material on the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic.

Whether you want it or not, the CoVID-19 is just likeevil aliens from outer space - will not negotiate with us. This is a virus and he absolutely does not care about our affairs, politics, religion and worldview. The virus exists and its sole purpose is to multiply as successfully as possible. And therefore, every time you leave the house you risk if you do not get sick yourself, then infect others. Judging by the available data, people under the age of 40 can easily endure the disease, but it is very dangerous for anyone over 60. Think about your parents, grandparents - do you want them to go to a crowded hospital, just like in Italy, without guarantees that they will be connected to a ventilator? Personally, very, very much depends on you, do not forget about it.