If you wake up every morning in the hope thattomorrow it will all end, you know - you are not alone. The whole world has held its breath and is waiting for good news. Today, amid daily reports of the growing death toll due to the new coronavirus, every good news is worth its weight in gold. Perhaps for this reason, journalists turned their attention to Germany - at the time of this writing, more than 19 thousand cases of infection with a new coronavirus have been confirmed in the country, and the death toll is 68 people. The death rate is 0.36%, which is much lower than in France (2%), Spain (4%) and Italy (8%). Moreover, mortality in Germany is lower than in South Korea (1%), which equals all other countries. But what is the reason for this state of affairs?
Coronavirus mortality rate:
South Korea: 1.1%
- 1 Coronavirus in Germany
- 2 Hypothesis No. 1: everything is just beginning
- 3 Hypothesis No. 2: many young people became infected
- 4 Hypothesis No. 3: Little time has passed since the outbreak
- 5 Coronavirus in South Korea
Coronavirus in Germany
Today, mass testing of citizens oncoronavirus is used in South Korea, which managed to achieve amazing results. Moreover, even in Italy - the epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak - there is a small city that managed to contain the spread of the disease. This is the commune of Vo Euganeo with a population of 3,400 people, which is located near Venice. Immediately after the outbreak of CoVID-19 in Venice, the authorities of Vo Euganeo decided to mandatory test all residents of the city. According to BBC News, according to the test results, 90 people were infected with the coronavirus. By quarantining the infected, the disease was controlled.
In Germany, they also conduct many tests, but reallyIs this the whole point? According to the Spanish El Pais, the representative of the Ministry of Health of Spain, Fernando Simon, said that the German government did not have a final explanation of what was happening. However, there are at least three hypotheses.
Hypothesis No. 1: everything is just beginning
It is possible that the consequences of the epidemiccoronavirus in Germany will manifest later. The first outbreak in Europe occurred in Italy, where events developed very quickly, which caused a high mortality rate - only a week passed from the moment of the first infection to the first victim. This means that the outbreak has been active for many weeks, as it takes two to three weeks for the coronavirus to die. Anxiety in Italy has forced European countries to redouble detection efforts.
However, Germany reacted very quickly tothe appearance of the first infected. According to Zeit, Germany is two to three weeks ahead of other countries. The authorities conducted extensive testing, but at the first stage they still missed the flash. Researchers believe that testing citizens can explain the reason for this low mortality rate.
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Hypothesis No. 2: many young people have become infected
Among the first cases of infection detected inGermany had many young people. This is logical - they travel more and communicate more often with foreigners. Moreover, the body of young people copes better with the virus, and with age, the number of deaths increases. Thus, the average age of those infected in Germany is 47 years old, and those who are over 60 years old account for 20%. These figures are similar to those in South Korea, but very different from those in Italy, where the average age of infected - confirmed cases - is 66 years. At the same time, 25% of German residents are over 65 years old.
It is also possible that the overall development of the situationinfluenced by cultural customs. Everyday contact between young and old is different in all societies. According to Moritz Kun from Bonn University (Germany), in Italy, China or Japan, 20% of young people aged 30 to 49 still live with their parents, while in Germany this figure is just over 10%.
Hypothesis No. 3: Little time has passed since the outbreak
According to the third hypothesis, the reason for lowmortality rates in Germany may be that too little time has passed since the start of the epidemic. This is because death does not occur suddenly - it takes some time. And in many countries, the increase in mortality increases over time. This happened in South Korea, where testing is in full swing, but mortality rates have doubled: from 0.5% to 1.1% between March 1 and March 20. If the outbreak in Germany began later than in Spain or Italy, its mortality rates may increase.
Coronavirus in South Korea
The experience of South Korea shows that tests stand behind everything. Obviously, the best detectability reduces mortality rates, bringing them closer to the real picture: if you take into account all cases of infection, including the lungs, the ratio of dead and infected will be lower. Specialists in South Korea conducted more than 5,000 tests per million inhabitants, and although the outbreak in the country has been raging for many weeks, Korea is still the country with the lowest mortality rates.
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Also, researchers believe that lowMortality in Germany is probably associated with a combination of several factors. Most likely, mortality in Germany is unlikely to come close to that of Italy and Spain. But if the outbreak is just gaining momentum, then the number of deaths will inevitably increase.