Every year the effects of climate changebecome stronger, having a depressing effect on the oceans and its memory. By memory, scientists understand the constancy of the conditions by which it is possible to predict changes in the climatic environment. Ocean memory decline is the collective response of all climate models to human-induced warming. As concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to rise, the decline in ocean memory will become more apparent. Unstable ocean conditions can affect temperatures, precipitation and extreme weather events around the world. As the results of a new study show, the world's oceans are becoming less and less predictable.
- 1 Climate collapse
- 2 Waiting for disaster
- 3 What does the ocean remember?
- 4 Gloomy predictions
The oceans are the main indicatorhealth of the planet. Rapid climate change has already increased the frequency of extreme weather events. Fires, heatwaves, droughts and temperature fluctuations are affecting more and more countries and are predicted to worsen.
According to the latest report from an international groupexperts on climate change at the UN (IPCC), if the amount of harmful emissions into the atmosphere remains at the current level, it will not be possible to avoid dramatic consequences. Many of the changes that are taking place are unprecedented in thousands and even hundreds of thousands of years.
Further ignoring the problem could lead to the fact that after 2040 the planet will pass the point of no return. Which, by the way, has already been completed for the Arctic.
Did you know that climate change could lead to a Little Ice Age? We talked about how further events may develop here, do not miss it.
Waiting for disaster
Already today, the melting of glaciers and rising temperaturesturn habitual life on Earth into a disaster movie: what used to be considered the "flood of the century" risks becoming an annual phenomenon in 80 years. There are also fears of an irreversible rise in sea levels, which threatens to wipe out coastal cities from the face of the Earth.
Climatologists have also concluded that the increase in average temperature has been faster over the past 2,000 years. As climate conditions change, The world ocean is changing its structure, flow and even color. It should be noted that the current climate change is the fault of man.
What does the ocean remember?
Unlike the weather, which can be strong andchange rapidly from day to day, the Earth's oceans typically undergo only minor changes over the course of a week. Oceanic amnesia, as researchers call it, is fraught with significant problems. Recall that the oceans are a source of food and livelihood for several billion people on the planet.
The current state of the oceans can be compare with amnesia, because of which the prediction of future events is hardly possible, according to the authors of a study published in the scientific journal Science Advances.
According to study co-author Fei-Fei Jin ofFrom the University of Hawaii, disruption of ocean memory suggests internal ocean changes along with new challenges in weather forecasting. According to available data, ocean memory will decrease over most of the globe by the end of the 21st century. That is just 79 years later.
Over the past 170 years, global temperatures haveThe Earth rose by 1.23 degrees Celsius and peaked in just 125,000 years. This means that in the very near future the heat waves will become unbearable.
The researchers also found that shallowing,caused by climate change is primarily responsible for shrinking ocean memory. Moreover, changes occurring in the world's oceans may have a negative impact on the management of sensitive ecosystems.
Fisheries, for example, depend on sustainablemarine environment. But if the ocean's memory gets worse, it could affect populations of marine life adapted to more constant environmental conditions.
Other processes, such as changes in ocean currents and the exchange of energy between the atmosphere and the ocean, also contribute to changes in how ocean memory works.
The results of the lateststudies suggest that glaciers are collapsing in Antarctica, causing water levels to rise. My colleague Andrei Zhukov recently spoke about how and why this happens.
The results obtained during the work canimprove climate models and provide clues to how the oceans will respond to global change. In the coming decades, climatologists predict that the ocean will change due to climate change and become increasingly unpredictable.
The memory loss of the ocean will not only affectpredictability of physical variables, but can also affect the management of sensitive marine ecosystems. The loss of oceanic memory essentially means that there will be less time to make a forecast.
Another problem is the pollution of the ocean with plastic debris, which leads to the death of the inhabitants of the deep sea. You can read more about how and why this happens and what to do here.
This could interfere with our ability to predict and prepare for changes in the ocean. Ocean Memory Degradation is the collective response of all climate models to human-induced warming.
Decreased memory of the ocean combined withan increase in random fluctuations suggests internal changes in the system and new problems in forecasting under warming conditions, the authors of the scientific work explain.
Ground impacts on temperature, precipitation, andalso extreme events can also be affected by ocean memory loss due to their dependence on sea surface temperature as a predictable source.
Read even more interesting articles about the future of mankind and climate change on our channel in Yandex.Zen. There are regularly published articles that are not on the site.
This phenomenon can also have a negativeimpact on biological diversity. Depending on whether species adapt, future changes in their populations can be better estimated and predicted given ocean memory loss.