The fall in the number of iPhone and iPad users in the world. Start

Hello.

There are simple things in the world that do not require much explanation. For example, if a product costs

more expensive than all other similar products, thenits sales cannot be seen. Birkin bags are not sold in the same volumes as regular bags from a nearby store. Actually, their exclusivity is part of the history of the product. For the cost of such a luxury bag, you can buy a hundred or two bags of similar size. In monetary terms, luxury occupies a significant market share. But in the absolute numbers of sold pieces, it is almost invisible on a global scale.

From quarter to quarter we read victorious reportsApple's revenue and revenue are growing, sales of the main product iPhone set certain records. Then there was a stagnation in iPhone sales, which looks like something positive against the backdrop of a fall in the global market. Apple likes to give numbers that amaze the imagination, for example, the number of iOS devices exceeded 1.8 billion at the beginning of 2022. A year earlier it was 1.65 billion devices. It is devices, not people, that is important to make a distinction. Devices include both iPhones (more than half of them), as well as watches, headphones, tablets, and so on. In a word, everything that Apple sells.

Unfortunately, Apple always gives numbers.wholesales exactly the same as other manufacturers. We cannot estimate partners' inventory, how well or poorly the same iPhones are sold, such estimates are possible only in retrospect. The difference between wholesale sales and retail sales is growing, as the crisis is raging in the world and people do not have money for the most expensive devices. But we want at least indirect confirmation of this, and we should look for them not in the combed-out figures of the company, but in third-party sources.

I propose to consider the figures of the company togetherSensor Tower, which studies the demand for apps and games across platforms, evaluates their sales. Over the past year, the picture looks amazing for Apple, especially in comparison with Android.

But this is revenue in terms of money, and what happens to app downloads? Here the picture suddenly changes, iOS loses downloads, albeit not too noticeably so far.

Please note that the total number of downloadsremained almost the same, rested on the ceiling. But there was a redistribution from iOS to Android, this happened for the first time in history. And the figure of 2 billion downloads roughly corresponds to this flow. Here you can build different assumptions, but the most obvious is that users are switching to Android, choosing this system.

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Growth point is the costs in games, they are growing on both platforms.

Our theory that during the crisis, iPhone sales are notmay be at previous levels, needs figures that can illustrate this, the drop in sales in individual markets does not allow us to fully appreciate the overall picture. Let's turn to applications again, and here their number on the average smartphone will help us. From year to year, the number of installed applications for the user does not change, as well as the number of applications that he uses on a monthly basis - this is about 30 different applications (for iOS). From this we can conclude that the number of downloaded applications directly depends on the number of devices that people have in their hands. The more devices, the more app downloads. Let's try to superimpose this data on the number of downloads that we have above - 32.3 billion downloads, which is roughly a little more than 1 billion iPhone / iPad. It turns out that the numbers are approximately the same, a rough estimate (I call it plus or minus a horse, but it can be a starting point).

Now let's look at the Morgan Stanley reportbased on Sensor Tower data, since 2015, the company has been tracking App Store revenue, which is calculated according to the methodology they developed (it has not changed in any way). In September 2022, the company recorded a drop in App Store revenue, and it relates to key markets - the United States, Canada and Japan. The drop in revenue year-on-year was 14%, Morgan Stanley analyst notes that this is due to economic uncertainty, people began to save. And this happened for the first time in history!

This is a very important statement, since manypeople completely broken logical chains. Let's try together to evaluate the influence of this factor. People have stopped buying apps and services from the App Store because of the economic crisis, meaning they are saving tens of dollars. Now let's imagine a person who saves 10-20 dollars and immediately buys a smartphone for a thousand dollars (or takes it under a contract from the operator, which translates into those very additional monthly costs, the order is the same as when buying applications). Of course, one can imagine that people are not inherent in logic as such, then we must admit that they buy iPhones for the last ones and then start saving on applications. It is hard to believe in such an approach. It is also clear that we are not talking about the entire population of iPhone owners in all countries of the world. Partially, it is necessary to take into account the shutdown of the App Store in Russia, which affected its revenue, but this event could not ensure such a percentage drop year-on-year, there are too few iOS users in Russia. Yes, and many have come up with workarounds for paying for services.

First of all, the drop in revenue of the App Storeassociated with game purchases and in-game payments. For the Play Store, it is assumed that the fall in September could be up to 9%. This is exactly the model in which people stop playing, spend less and less time in toys. Recall the figure above, which shows the growth in game sales in 2021. Moreover, in a crisis, people need something to keep themselves busy, and they will spend more and more time in games, this is a great way to escape from reality. It is often believed that games are available only to those who lead a measured, calm life. What is fundamentally wrong, during periods of economic and social upheaval, the number of people playing increases dramatically. The only question is what part of the crisis we are all in now.

Information is contradictory:on the one hand, a penny savings on toys for already purchased smartphones, on the other hand, the purchase of very expensive devices. Such a model does not fit in any way.

If you look at indirect data, then here weinteresting discoveries await. SellCell analyzes the second-hand iPhone offers, that is, how much Apple new items sell for outside the Apple Store. It is no secret that at the beginning of sales, resellers always raise prices, creating additional excitement and shortages.

In the first ten days of iPhone 14 sales,decreased in value twice as fast as last year's models. So, the iPhone 14 lost 38.4% in value (last year 18.2% for the iPhone 13).

New generation iPhone sales estimates from China(a key market for Apple) are also not very happy - in the first three days, sales did not reach a million, 987 thousand devices were sold. Less by 11% than a year earlier.

From all sides we are bombarded with information aboutthat the world is entering a crisis, product sales are falling in all categories. And it is impossible to imagine that the company selling the most expensive devices in the world suddenly became an exception to this happy rule. From here, a simple conclusion is that something is wrong with the numbers that they treat us with. I think that the issue is in the growth of warehouse stocks, the shelf is saturated, but it is not converted into sales to end consumers. And the applications in the App Store indirectly confirm this. I think that this is only the beginning of the most interesting, because against the backdrop of falling incomes of people around the world, the economy will become one of the most significant reflections of this era. Savings on food, applications, fuel. Savings on everything.

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