General, Research, Technology

Stop distorting coronavirus statistics! It is very dangerous!

This article is a cry from the heart! My name is Renat GrishinI'm in charge editor of this site. Over the past few weeks we have writtena huge amount of materials on coronavirus in our country and beyond. Every day I update a post on the pandemic, which hangs fixed on the site at the very top. I understand that behind the soulless figures of the sick and the dead lie human destinies, however pathetic it may sound. And when, day after day, I see that the number of victims is only growing, ordinary human anger parses me into people who either do not understand, or even understand what is happening in the world today. And half the trouble, if I see my son in class chat from crazy mommies that “coronavirus is a common ARI,” but when I meet it from opinion leaders on the Internet, I want to sound the alarm! Are you serious don't understand what is going on? Or is it such a psychological defense againstyourself? Stop already manipulating statistics and giving your erroneous conclusions to your millionth audience! You don’t understand that people can die because of you?

Playing with statistics is very dangerous!

It just so happened that today I will take apartposts on the Telegram channel of Artemy Lebedev. Not because I am biased towards him, but rather the opposite. But what I saw cannot leave me indifferent. Let's take a look together and look at a couple of his posts that he dedicated to coronavirus.

What is more dangerous: acute respiratory infections, influenza or coronavirus?

For me, as a person who writes daily aboutpandemic victims the answer is obvious. But daily on TV, on YouTube, on blogs, etc. I meet a complete misunderstanding of what is happening. I really hope that this is just a defensive reaction of the body and an unwillingness to correctly interpret statistics figures, and not a malicious desire to mislead the reader. Here is Lebedev's publication:

Profanity is a Lebedev “trick”

Artemy provides statistics on deaths in Italy,which took one of the first places in the number of deaths from COVID-19. And after reading the post, there is a clear feeling that either they are lying to us and this is a world-wide conspiracy, or ... I don’t know, suggest your option.

So it turns out that turn on the head, and even sonobody is interested in checking the numbers anymore. It is necessary not to reflect, but to distribute. But what if all the same check that writes respected by many blogger. This is not difficult.

So, in 2019, 647,000 people died in Italy. This is open data. Divide by 365 and get that on average per day approximately 1,770 people die. First death from coronavirus in ItalyIt was recorded on February 22, 2020. In total, 15,887 people have died in Italy to this day (April 6, 2020). This is for 45 days, i.e. about 350 people daily. You just need to understand that the increase in the number of deaths doubled almost daily. If in March the death toll was less than 10 every day, then in early April we observed a figure of 700 people / day. And now let's compare with the average number of deaths without coronavirus (1,770 people). It turns out now 1,770 + 700 people die from coronavirus, or + 40% daily during the active phase of a pandemic. And this is the official data that takes into account death only with a confirmed diagnosis of coronavirus. In fact, there are more.

Official statistics on the number of deaths from coronavirus in Italy

In his post, Lebedev cites another link toOnline real-time death count in Italy. It’s hard for me to say whether death from a coronavirus is counted here or not, but if so, I can only rejoice for Italy’s healthcare, because they show that 1,141 people died today, provided that 525 people died from coronavirus today. In total, the death rate from COVID-19 is 46% of the total number of deaths per day, and if these deaths are excluded, the number of deaths is 616 people, compared to 1,770 average deaths according to the statistics of 2019. Agree that now the numbers do not seem so harmless, do they?

And yes, if someone did not know why people are not buriedand they store bodies in ice stadiums, I’ll answer - it’s forbidden to bury people according to accepted traditions: gathering more than two is also forbidden, even during a funeral. And the bodies are not given to relatives until a quarantine period of about two weeks has passed. It is strange not to know this in the era of open sources.

But this seemed to Lebedev a little. A day later he published a new post, where he was trying to compare mortality from firearms in the United States with death from coronavirus. Here is this post:

Let's compare warm to soft?

This time I will not paint in detailI’ll give you the math, and I’ll give you the final figures right away: in the United States, 110 people die every day from firearms, and in the past few days, about 1,000 people die from the coronavirus every day. Does it still seem funny and hype, dear Artemy?

It’s hard for me to say how people withmillions of subscribers releasing such posts. You can argue with me and get to the bottom of letters in such publications, saying that formally everything is written correctly. Only you see how impressed you are after reading these “statistics”. It seems that there is nothing to be afraid of, one can not give a damn about self-isolation, recommendations of governments and WHO, and boldly go to the park to fry kebabs, because "many more people die from acute respiratory infections than from coronavirus." There is only one caveat: in such statistics, data are presented for the year, and we only have three months of deaths from coronavirus (and they are growing rapidly). It’s also worth considering that for any comparison, you need to keep in mind that the number of deaths from coronavirus add up to other deaths per daybut do not replace them.

Well, about the fact that many simply do not know how to use a calculator and common sense, I generally will not say anything.

The number of deaths by country for April 5, 2020:

  • Spain: 836 + 694 from coronavirus
  • France: 1 691 + 518 from coronavirus
  • Britannia: 1,272 + 621 from coronavirus
  • USA: 5,772 + 1,165 from coronavirus

Still not scared?

Stay home and stay healthy!