Hello.
Last week I caught myself realizing that fake news suddenly became the norm, the largest
I have no desire to make a crusadeagainst a specific publication, but promised that I would analyze, using the example of one issue of a newspaper, what is wrong with such “journalism”. So watch the text this week, I think it will give a lot of food for thought and explain how the market actually works, and not in fiction when sensations are created. And today this applies to any publication, not just one newspaper.
Events in the market this summer are gaining momentum,are accelerating, and first of all it concerns the whole world. Look at how this happens, our issue of "Spikers" will definitely help you with this and explain what to expect. So let's get started, let's go!
Table of Contents
- How much does Google earn from decrypting messages in Telegram
- TikTok ban in America, an old song in a new way
- 3nm as a real technological process from Samsung
- The lack of data centers in the world - the shortage is becoming massive
- The fall of electronics markets - an increase in product prices
- Broken coffee machine - say no to bad service
- Handbag for the phone - I will become a fashionable guy!
- Books. Dmitry Artimovich, “I am a hacker! Chronicle of the Lost Generation"
How much does Google earn from decrypting messages in Telegram
After Telegram appearedpremium subscription, people started buying it, a lot of people got an asterisk in my contact list. And the hand involuntarily reached out to give 300 rubles for Telegram support, since I don’t see any other reasons to pay for a subscription. Except, perhaps, only one - the ability to decrypt voice messages. It is not always possible to listen to what was dictated to you, but then you pressed the button and you see the text. But they rarely dictate to me by voice, rather I give out comments for the media, so this is also past here.
Premium version of Telegram - why and who needs it?
Telegram has a subscription to premium services, we understand why it is needed, what it gives and how the economy of the messenger is changing.
We live in a time when sensations ariseout of the blue, so it happened this time. Users unearthed that messages are sent to Google to decrypt, and immediately it started - we are being watched, this is not safe and further down the text.
For owners of Android smartphones, such concernsand they don't seem to make sense at all. If you consider that Google is watching you at any cost, then what is stopping them from doing it day and night on the device? Yes, absolutely nothing. You can embed surveillance at the system level in such a way that you will never know about it. But paranoia mode is not the best guide to what can be done and what is actually happening.
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Even before the advent of the premium version of Telegram indevelopment team used Google's work when they disguised their product as an application from Google. And, apparently, nothing was paid to Google, there was no scandal, but the public found out about it by accident, one of the programmers dug it out in the code. With the advent of the premium version, the decryption function is officially presented, moreover, from the description of Telegram itself, it became known that there is an agreement between Google and Telegram on this. And this is not a free feature for the messenger.
I will quote part of Pavel Durov's message regarding the fear that someone is gaining access to your voice recordings:
Telegram does not share personal data with Googleusers like names, phone numbers, IP addresses. In addition, Telegram never sends any data to third parties automatically, without an explicit request from users.
Voice message recipients can forwardthem to anyone - for example, bots to translate them into text. For Telegram Premium subscribers, we have offered a button, by clicking on which they can send a request to translate a single voice message into text. In order to process such requests, as we initially explained publicly, we rent equipment from Google.
Decision to use Google's paid technologyallows you to maximize the quality of transcription, but does not affect the safety of data, because, according to the agreement between Telegram and Google, Google cannot do anything with these impersonal audio data, except to generate text versions based on them and return them back (in particular, the company does not may use them for any of its other services or for advertising).
It would be significantly cheaper for us to deployown free solution on your hardware, or take advantage of technology from smaller or regional players. However, this would have a negative impact on the quality of recognition of voice messages in most languages.
In this case, we traditionally go foradditional costs for the greater comfort of our users. Whether to trust Google's guarantees and whether to use the voice-to-text translation function is a choice that we leave to the discretion of each of the Telegram Premium subscribers.
I have no reason not to believe Pavel Durov, butIt's the same as being afraid that something happens to the records. This is an extremely unlikely scenario, sort of like aliens arriving in my backyard. But in the heat of data security discussions, they completely missed the commercial moment - how much does Telegram pay for this functionality? Let's try to fix this bug.
Google's website lists standard rates. In comparison, the cost of transcribing an audio recording by a human being is one dollar per minute!
Let's imagine that to start Telegramuses a million minutes, the cost per minute is 0.024 cents. A million minutes will cost $24,000. The question, of course, is how many people and how many messages will be decrypted within a month, but even if we take the required amount of paid subscriptions for Telegram at 17.5 million people, it will not turn out so much. I am sure that a small number of people will constantly use the service. But if we want to count, then let it be a million people, a number no worse than others. Let's say that everyone on average per month will decipher about 10 minutes. A total of only 10 million minutes, or even at head-on prices - 240 thousand dollars. A small amount for such an opportunity. There are no millions even close, and this is a nice feature of the modern market, it is not so expensive to build such functions from Google for many world languages, and the capabilities of your product are growing. And this is a win-win situation for all parties without exception. Have you used such a decryption in Telegram? Signed up for a premium account?
TikTok ban in America, an old song in a new way
Donald Trump officially announced TikToka threat to national security, acted as a racketeer who squeezes out a successful business and requires it to be sold to American companies. Events then unfolded very quickly and looked awkward, the President of America did not hesitate to admit that he was making every effort to take away someone else's business and transfer it into the hands of his companies. You can find the chronology of events in one of our texts.
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On June 17, TikTok announced that it was migrating dataAmerican users, of which more than one hundred million people, in the cloud from Oracle will no longer use their own solutions. The task was to convince everyone that the company does not use this data to spy on users in the United States. At the same time, records of the company's internal meetings appeared in the press, from which it follows that the company's office in China had access to information such as usernames, their age and phone number. Plus, some administrators had access to more information, they could "see everything." The meaning of American officials' feelings eludes me, because companies like Google, Apple and others see even more data, monitor users in all corners of the world, but there is no persecution. At the same time, America is zealous to ensure that no data leaks out. And this suggests that there are no equal relations here at all.
The FCC, the Federal Communications Commission, was contactedto Apple and Google demanding that TikTok be removed from the app stores by July 8 or that they explain their refusal in detail. Letter signed by Brendan Carr sent to Tim Cook and Sundar Pichai. Letter quote: “TikTok is not just an app for sharing funny videos and memes. It's a wolf in sheep's clothing." According to American politicians, the application collects a lot of data and China has access to it.
It is useful to remember that the appointment of BrendanCarr in the FCC happened at the suggestion of Donald Trump and he is again playing in the same team, pursuing exactly the same policy as before. The TikTok map is back in the game, and the confrontation with China is reaching a new level. Especially since this is happening in the context of American political life, China occupies the minds of many, it is believed that a decisive battle will take place in the near future, a year or a half. Hence the many claims in various fields, including preparations to ensure that social networks do not have any tools to promote points of view that are different from those needed by American politicians. It can also be considered that this is preparation for the presidential elections in 2024. There should be no illusions, the race for the presidency in the United States means censorship close to total, they are already preparing for it. This means that technology will become a hostage to the actions of politicians, however, we are no longer surprised by this.
3nm as a real technological process from Samsung
Samsung launches 3nm process technologyovertaking TSMC along the way. FinFet is being replaced by Multi-Bridge-Channel FET (MBCFET™), which reduces power consumption by up to 45%, reduces die area by up to 16%, improves performance by up to 23%, all compared to 5 nm. As usual, everything sounds very, very good, but the first generation of technology does not provide for the production of processors, only microcircuits for certain tasks. Which, in essence, means working out the technology on small forms, in order to then move on to large ones.
Samsung bet on the opportunity to widelychange the performance of their solution, created it as flexible as possible. The customer can choose performance and power consumption, vary these two parameters. That is, in practice, you can order chips with a very long operating time, but limited performance, or focus on performance. Fine-tuning allows you to make the final product interesting for a very wide range of customers.
Next year, Samsung plans to launchthe second generation of the 3 nm process technology, the differences in it will be impressive - power consumption is 50% less, the die size is 35%, performance is 30% higher. As before, the comparison is with the 5 nm process technology.
In the aspect of this news, I would like to dwell on itsperception, I read in a couple of patriotic channels that no one can claim that this is a reality and that such a technical process exists. I caught myself thinking that such statements perfectly illustrate the way of thinking of a huge number of people who deny science, need personal experience (I have not seen, so there are doubts that something exists). As for me, shortcomings in education begin to emerge when we have lost basic knowledge and a number of people have moved to understanding the world solely through personal experience, which, moreover, is not based on scientific facts.
Add here social networks that formpositive feedback, when people prefer to “believe” what is close to them. And it turns out a furious story in which such people believe in hypersonic missiles, because they want to believe, but deny the existence of 3 nm, because "it's too difficult to create." It is not very clear where the measure comes from, what is difficult and what is easy. For me, as a person who is far from one and the other technology, they are both very complex, and I can’t even imagine their creation in detail. I don't have a clear understanding of exactly what factors are blocking here. That is, what equipment is needed, what materials and with what degree of purity, technologies for their processing, and further down the list. A vague idea of the stages does not at all make it possible to create something like this. And the erroneous simplicity of explanations in popular science articles does not make us all experts in such complex areas.
As a continuation of the topic, let's take a look at how the shares of processor manufacturers (of any type) are distributed. Data from IC Insights for 2021.
Intel dominance, as always, certainly, butwe see the rise of ARM architecture, growing Apple (thanks to the sales of the MacBook on the M1), Qualcomm and MediaTek. AMD is eating away at the usual market for Intel, the company has a very good line of processors in the last few years.
Top five manufacturers control 86%market, and its total size is 102.7 billion dollars. The share of other manufacturers, and the next five are NVIDIA, Samsung, UNISOC, HiSilicon and NXP 4.3% ($4.4 billion) decreased from 5% a year earlier. It is important to understand that the volume of production and sales of GPUs is not taken into account here, hence such a small share of NVIDIA, although the company should be in the top three in terms of business volume. The report somewhat distorts the picture of the world, on the other hand, for our task of understanding the development of the market, its detail is enough.
In previous decades, we did not have a seriousalternatives to x86 processors, today it is. And against this background, new technical processes become even more important, as they allow you to get a visible advantage, especially for mobile equipment, which directly depends on batteries. And the transition to 3 nm will give us an excellent gain in operating time, in 7-9 years we will feel it, since this technical process will reach mass devices and will not remain the lot of only flagships. And the fact that Samsung has taken the first step in this direction is great news, we will all benefit from this, even if not today.
The lack of data centers in the world - the shortage is becoming massive
Sometimes I feel like we're living in a scripta disaster movie, but it was written by some inept apprentices, the scenes are too poorly and comically worked out, many threads of the plot sag. In Europe, the heat has begun, data centers are working for wear and tear, cooling does not always cope, and the equipment is literally on fire. Places where the temperature usually does not exceed 30 degrees in summer, today show temperatures over 40 degrees, and these are not single days, but weeks. Dry summer, lack of water for irrigation, as well as problems with cooling data centers. All these are negative scenarios that lead to the fact that the crisis with the availability of computing power begins to grow before our eyes. Here, at one point, many factors have developed - the lack of stocks of servers and other infrastructure equipment, the fact that iron prices have skyrocketed in several years and growth will continue in the next couple of years. At the same time, major players such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, tried not to raise the cost of their services multiple times, but fought for market share. Changes in the cost of clouds have become noticeable in the last year, but so far it cannot be said that the price has increased dramatically.
Second half of 2022 in the global marketwill be remembered for the fact that companies will begin to raise the cost of cloud services for their customers. The reason is banal - the increase in the cost of electricity, as well as the cost of equipment. Both the first and second are inevitable, plus let's add the worst scenario - an insufficient number of servers, they are not available at reasonable prices. The situation is worst at Microsoft, the Azure service was supposed to update the iron fleet in the next couple of years, but now more than two dozen data centers around the world are working under increased load, they have limited both performance and throughput. The company cannot replace iron, it is faced with a shortage of supplies at reasonable prices. And in some ways this crisis is reminiscent of the situation that companies in Russia find themselves in, even if it is dictated by completely different reasons. Limiting the number of services for existing clients, the impossibility of signing contracts with new ones - all these are flowers compared to what will happen next. First of all, the climate will change the rules of the game on the entire planet, let's remember Taiwan, which, in the face of a lack of conventional technical water, is forced to constantly stop the production of processors. But there are also data centers suffering from overheating.
That the world's supply chains are brokenThe situation with climatic equipment characterizes well, the companies are trying to build new data centers taking into account the new introductory weather conditions. And if peak external temperatures were previously estimated at 50 degrees and their duration did not exceed several hours, now many companies have raised the upper limit to 60 degrees! And this is a fundamentally different equipment, which simply does not exist in sufficient quantities, as well as the energy consumption profile is changing radically. I would venture to suggest that the geography of distribution of data centers may change so much in the next decade that in some places they will simply disappear, it will become unprofitable to maintain them there.
There are no miracles in the world, and if the costdata centers will grow several times, then services in the cloud will cost significantly more. Look at how the prices for games in the clouds have changed, from a subscription of 999 rubles we have moved to 1,499 rubles, and even this price looks inadequately low. She's not just smart, she's mean. Therefore, large companies are canceling free services for their customers, they are beginning to meticulously count all their expenses in the clouds. And believe that this is only the beginning of a long journey, when the clouds will become expensive.
It is easy to calculate that in search of efficiencyDemand for local SSDs and disks will begin to grow, as a result, their prices will go up sharply. That is, they will not just grow, as is happening now, but at the beginning of 2023 they will become noticeably more expensive for the whole world. Which, in turn, will further increase the prices for data centers, everything is interconnected here. We get, if not an ideal crisis for data centers, then something similar to it.
Talk about the fact that the owners of data centers fromUnfortunately, this cannot be won. The struggle for efficiency will come to the fore, but the main thing is that with reduced competition and rising prices, we will face the fact that customers of computing power and storage systems will begin to abandon them or revise their plans. And this will create local pressure on plans for the development of data centers around the world. The crisis is becoming multifaceted, but the main explanation will be inflation, as well as a shortage of components, although the main thing here is still the climate and its change.
In this regard, the rejection of the majority looks interesting.manufacturers to transfer production to the United States, the state promised tax breaks, credit lines, but so far has not given a single cent. The cost of projects is growing before our eyes, a decline in sales of microelectronics is ahead, and companies from other countries are in no hurry to solve the problems of US national security at their own expense. And this also puts pressure on the electronics and services market in the medium term.
We live in an amazing time when technologybecome, on the one hand, mass, on the other hand, they increase in value before our eyes, and this cannot be avoided. About this - another story in "Spikers".
The fall of electronics markets - an increase in product prices
Very often I have to listen toa particular person is absolutely indifferent to what is happening on the world markets, he is interested in the price of electronics in his particular city. The smaller the city where this person writes from, the clearer such statements are. The world is more interesting, and the cost of the same iPhone in some New Vasyuki directly depends on the situation in the world. Failure to understand this leads to the fact that a person spends time and money where it could have been avoided. It is enough to realize what will happen next, and Russia here is just a piece of a large mosaic.
All last year I've been talking about the costelectronics will grow all over the world, this is inevitable. He gave many examples of how companies begin to save on trifles and deliberately worsen their products, since they have no other choice. When it comes to devices with the highest cost, such savings seem absurd, but they are present. For example, the new MacBook Pros on the M2 processor have a flaw that cannot be identified by eye, you will only encounter it after purchase. In order to achieve maximum SSD speed, the manufacturer usually installs two SSDs, they work in parallel. That's how the MacBook Pro on the M1 works. In the basic version, they saved money on M2, there is only one SSD module! As a result, system performance is two times lower. We take a model with 512 GB of memory, and this problem is no longer observed. This is the same hidden deterioration in performance when the manufacturer saves a penny on any little thing. And this is literally a penny for a product of this value. But savings for companies is becoming a second name, everyone is trying to squeeze out additional efficiency.
Inflation breaks records around the world, financialthe US authorities did not find anything better than to strengthen the dollar, which will eventually hit America even harder. But in the moment the problem is solved, how to reduce the load here and now. He repeatedly said that this would lead to a drop in the revenue of American companies by at least 15-20% due to losses in the exchange rate. And so Apple decided to raise prices, for example, in Japan, the cost of the iPhone 13 Pro was 99,800 yen, from now on it is 117,800 yen. An increase in cost of almost 20%, while the standard of living in Japan is falling, the purchasing power of people is falling. And this is a more or less prosperous market, while at the same time in Africa everything is much worse, hunger is already beginning there. And they try not to talk about it, bypassing this topic. In the same situation, all countries of the world, the crisis takes on rampant dimensions and forms.
We have repeatedly discussed thatresearch companies prefer not to notice the crisis, changing their forecasts at the last moment, when it is no longer possible to ignore reality. Let's see how in the last days of June, Gartner once again revised the forecast for smartphone sales in the world. This is the second change in two months, and certainly not the last.
Initially, Gartner predicted sales volumesmartphones in 2022 to 1.6 billion units. Then they lowered the forecast to 1.57 billion units, the last reduction - to 1.46 billion. Year-on-year decline will be 7.1%, in any case, the company believes so after the first half of the year. The reasons given are the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the lockdown in China. Inflation is mentioned in passing, as if in polite society it should not be discussed. But the main thing here is inflation, people all over the world are getting poorer, and it is extremely difficult to explain what is happening to them. In many countries it is no longer up to the iPhone, people consider their income and expenses, do not quite understand how they will live on. And this is happening not somewhere far away, but in Europe, which was quite recently prosperous. You can look at another forecast from Gartner, the PC market in the world - now a year-on-year drop of 9.5% is predicted. A lot of? Undoubtedly. But as for me, incorrigible optimists work at Gartner, because the prerequisites for maintaining such market volumes simply do not exist. We are on the verge of hyperinflation, when people do not fully understand what it is.
For comparison, I will give the example of Germany about a hundredyears ago. Then the workers received money twice a day - at lunch and in the evening. At lunch they were released so that they could spend money on buying bread, its cost changed several times during the day. Hyperinflation as it is. I hope that this will not happen in the world now, but the fact that the prices of electronics will start to grow by leaps and bounds is a fact. Therefore, you have only a couple of months when you need and you can buy what you need. Of course, if you are not ready to overpay on top. And I will add the following - specifically in Russia, it makes sense to buy goods on the same AliExpress, while there is an interesting exchange rate, everything will change soon.
By understanding global trends, you can benefit locally no matter where you are. And I hope you do this by reading our site.
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Broken coffee machine - say no to bad service
Somehow, one coffee machine unexpectedly turned offJura, she is over fifteen years old - good, reliable and big. Tasty coffee. I took it to a branded service center, where they honestly warned that the repair time could take up to a month, it was in the midst of this year's confusion. As a result, a few days later they called, told what needed to be done, announced the cost of the work. Against the background of the cost of new cars, about 150 thousand rubles (completely similar, but modern), I considered that 6,000 rubles is practically nothing. The machine was repaired, and all the systems were looked at, its operation was checked. I honestly admit that I brought it and did not unpack it, because I decided to drink Dolce Gusto capsules, which I had accumulated in order. I have just such a machine, bought four years ago on the occasion. It also turned out funny, I ordered capsules and confused Nespresso and Nescafe, in the end, this is how the machine appeared at home.
As it usually happens, it's time for thismachines, she somehow strained to make coffee, and then smoked and ordered to live long. The case is clearly non-warranty, I found the address of the Krups branded service, drove to it. They asked for 1,300 rubles for inspecting the machine, money only in cash or by transfer to Sberbank, which already says a lot. If I agree to the repair, then 1,300 rubles will be credited. In the basement, except for me and the receptionist, no one, only some man dragged a certain unit under warranty.
A couple of days later they called and said they couldrepair the machine, the total cost of repairs is 9,000 rubles. I was somewhat puzzled by this cost, because I remembered exactly that I was buying a machine for a comparable price, and here it’s just a repair, albeit an expensive part. I climbed onto Chinese sites to look at the cost of a pump that failed, the price is about 25-30 dollars. We sell it for services at a price of three to five thousand rubles. Someone has exorbitant appetites, and they spread along the chain.
And now the most curious thing, the new machine is on"Yandex.Market" about 5,500 rubles, but you can buy cheaper. That is, the cost of repairing an old machine significantly exceeds the price of a new one. What is the meaning and on whom is the calculation made? For a person who is attached to a typewriter like a domestic animal, will he care for it and cherish it at any cost? I have no explanation for this, but I am sure that this should not be the case in principle. And it’s convenient to write off anything for a moment. That's just in the same Jura, when I just handed over the machine, they said that the maximum cost of repairs outside the warranty is limited and it is quite low. That is, in fact, they will assemble a new machine for me, but for little money compared to the new one, and that's great. But in these mass products, repair is somehow not provided. And it's frustrating. I decided to pick up the machine, order a pump in China and see how crooked my hands are. It will turn out to collect - I'll do well, if it doesn't work out - it's not a pity to throw it away. But all the same, I arrive in a kind of stunnedness from these prices and the logic that I cannot catch.
Handbag for the phone - I will become a fashionable guy!
I remember the 90s, that brief moment whenphones are no longer huge, miniaturization has made it possible to carry them in your pocket or on your belt. A holster or case with a clip has become the constant companion of cell phone owners. Then the devices became even smaller, and from now on they began to be worn in pockets, bags, but not on the belt. Exclusively fashion and nothing else.
Fashion houses about ten years ago began to masterThe topic of bags for a phone or headphones, a lot of cases for every taste have appeared. Paying $500-1000 for a pouch for your headphones and showing that you are fashion savvy.
The other day, a souvenir was sent from realme, the first impression is that this is a holster for the phone. And it turned out to be just like that, packed, as usual, on sawdust, in a beautiful box.
In March 2002, this phone bag was shown at Paris Fashion Week by a Danish designer called HELIOT EMIL.
Limited collection for realme, it is impossible to buy such a handbag somewhere. But separately bags for phones are sold on the company's website, they cost from 350 euros and more. Which is typical for designer things.
My Galaxy Fold3 and S22 Ultra do not fit in this bag, but, for example, realme GT Pro is quite appropriate in it. Took my son out to take some pictures.
View this collaboration as something that hasvalue in an independent aspect, as if it were a specific product, is definitely not worth it. Here we need to talk about the bigger picture, in which realme uses every opportunity to highlight its brand, to tie it to certain concepts. In this particular case - to the Paris Fashion Week, to the one that collaborates with designers. And after all, this is not the first example of such cooperation, individually they are unimportant, but together they create the right mood, add color to the perception of the brand. I have repeatedly said that I like realme's approach in this, formally many technical solutions are the same as those of other companies, but it is precisely such trifles that add extra gloss. And this is already a distinctive feature that distinguishes the brand. I would like to see different companies trying to go beyond the utilitarian approach when they do something interesting and unusual.
The handbag may not be very utilitarian, but as an occasion it is quite. So she does her part.
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Books. Dmitry Artimovich, “I am a hacker! Chronicle of the Lost Generation"
I must say right away that the book of Dmitry Artimovich -originally a bibliographic rarity, the circulation was one hundred copies (yes, one hundred copies), but you can read the book in electronic form. He asked Dima to send a book and received it as a gift, somehow chatted on the air for an hour, discussed various issues on IT, so he took advantage of his official position.
A little over two hundred pages, to some extentan autobiography that reveals how Dmitry got into programming, began to deal with what led him to a DDOS attack on the Aeroflot payment gateway, for which he was convicted and served his sentence. This is not repentance, and this is not what you expect from a book, but a calm discussion about your own life. Moreover, the book is important in this aspect, since for the first time in one place you can evaluate the view of different people on that story, see direct speech from instant messengers (yes, it contains a swear word, but all the more valuable). And this is a good story, without embellishment, how life can turn out, how chance can determine further events. And this is very interesting in that it gives an inside look at many events that journalists usually turn into a blockbuster, which they are not. For those who want to understand how the underground world of the Internet works, there is a lot of curiosity here. This is not an encyclopedia, but exclusively Dima's life, his experiences and thoughts, and often too frank, sometimes even to the detriment of his perception. But the more interesting.
A lot in the book about Pavel Vrublevsky, I thinkafter this book, you will be able to look at this person in a different way, which is also curious. In a word, it is worth reading the book in order to partially immerse yourself in how the state behaves with those who are engaged in not quite legal things, how the evidence base is formed, and much more. Frank, good conversation - and the book looks exactly like a conversation with the reader. You can read it in one evening, maximum two. I recommend.
P.S. The heat has consumed most of the world's countries and cities,summer is very hot. I will update the material about electronics and hot days, there is something to tell and show how to expand last year's text. I wish you not to overheat, take care of yourself and that the week is successful. Have a good week and good mood!
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Spillikins No. 699. Economic Forum in St. Petersburg and Dunyasha
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Spillikins No. 698. Changes in the world around - rejection of familiar values
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