Research

Russian scientists: Apophis asteroid could fall to Earth in 2068

In 2068, an asteroid may fall to Earth.Apophis, according to a report prepared by scientists from the department of celestial mechanics of St. Petersburg State University. The report is going to be presented at the Korolev readings, which will be held at the end of January at MGTU. N.E. Bauman. In this work, it is also noted that in 2029 the object will be very close to the Earth - only a few tens of thousands of kilometers will divide our planet with an asteroid.

Asteroid 2004 MN4 was first discoveredAmerican scientists from the Kitt Peak Observatory in 2004. A year later, he received the name of Apophis, in honor of the evil Egyptian god Apophis (in ancient Greek pronunciation - Apophis, Apophis), according to mythology living in a dark underworld.

Almost immediately after its discovery, scientists beganmake predictions about the probability of a collision of an object with the Earth. So in 2004, scientists suggested that the likelihood of Apophis falling to Earth in 2029 would be 1 to 45. Some time later, radar observations excluded the possibility of a collision in 2029, but due to inaccurate initial data there was a probability of a collision of this object with our planet in 2036 and subsequent years.

Updated Apophis data was obtained atassistance of the Herschel Space Observatory. And if, according to previous estimates, the diameter of the object was about 270 meters, then according to new data, the diameter of Apophis is 325 ± 15 meters.

Russian experts have prepared a new report on this object and are going to submit it during the Royal Space Readings, which will be held in late January.

In the course of a new study by Russian scientistsit was found that in 2068 Apophis could indeed fall to Earth. At least, this is the rapprochement, experts call the most dangerous of those waiting for the planet in the foreseeable future.

The report of Russian scientists reported thatIn 2029, an asteroid as close as possible to the Earth - the distance will be only about 38 0000 kilometers, which is about 10 times less than the distance from Earth to the Moon.

"This convergence causes significant scatteringpossible trajectories, among them there are trajectories containing convergence in 2051. The corresponding resonant returns contain many (about a hundred) possible Apophis collisions with Earth today, the most dangerous one in 2068, ”one of the theses of the report quotes RIA Novosti.

Rendezvous of our planet with a small celestial bodyalso expected in 2044, when Apophis gets close to Earth at 16 million kilometers. In 2051 this distance will be already 760 thousand. And in 2060 - 5 million kilometers.

According to scientists, Apophis can change the orbitso that in 2068 its trajectory will intersect with the orbit of our planet, which can lead to a collision. For such a scenario, at the moment of approaching our planet in 2029, the asteroid “must pass through a“ keyhole ”- a very narrow region of space. Similar forecasts were made earlier, but at that time they were talking about a possible collision of an asteroid with the Earth in 2036, during the subsequent study of the object this risk was excluded.

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