Miscellaneous

New sanctions against Chinese companies from the White House - for Russia

Hello.

Even Barack Obama, as president of the United States, “teared the Russian economy to shreds,” and since then everyone

self-respecting president of america repeats thisfeat. If we were paid for every time we are “destroyed”, then the national wealth fund would reach astronomical numbers. But political PR is such that you need to convince everyone without exception that the erroneous steps you have taken make at least some sense.

At the G7 meeting, Russia was a central topic.On the one hand, it is not very clear what sanctions can still be imposed, on the other hand, it is necessary to show that some steps are being taken, otherwise the farce becomes clear to any external observer. An attempt to organize a trade blockade of Russia has successfully failed, goods are coming into the country, and parallel imports have started working since mid-May. For the first month, the companies tried their hand, looked closely at how everything works. But now they are gradually increasing the volume of deliveries and the variety of goods. Yes, many products are not cheap, but they are.

Parallel import of electronics, how it works in practice. Race for goods

How parallel imports work today, huge distributors and small companies compete for hundreds of pieces; logistics problems and other practical import issues.

Attempts to block the supply of goods to Russiathey run into opposition from the companies themselves, who come up with schemes according to which they want to work in the country. For example, Nespresso boutiques closed, the company stopped selling coffee capsules, and left Russia. In fact, you can call the hotline, order everything you need, and they will bring it all to your home. There is a system of privileges for a Nespresso club member, but the company tries to keep a low profile and not advertise itself in order to avoid exacerbations. What is even more curious, new deliveries are going on as they were, the price of coffee has changed, but not drastically. I recently made the usual order for capsules, they brought it during the day. The offer includes all the limited editions of this summer, which appeared only in May! In a word, both laughter and sin.

It turns out that the company loudly slammed the door andshe immediately organized for herself the opportunity to sell goods, since she cannot afford to completely lose the Russian market. I rightly considered that if everything is done quietly, then there is an opportunity to save sales and the market for the future. And there are a lot of such stories, hundreds of them.

Some companies transfer management to Russianmanagers, draw up papers in such a way as to return the business when the situation changes. Someone just creates gaskets through which they work. Of course, the increased amount of work to avoid external surveillance affects the cost, but it is impossible to say that everything has changed dramatically and the Russian market has suddenly become unimportant.

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But publicly, the rhetoric of American officialshas changed, it is necessary to isolate Russia by all means, to make the life of the country and all the people living in it as difficult as possible. As a result of the G7 meeting in the White House, they came up with new explanations of the sanctions, you can find the document here.

List evidence of “torn to shredseconomy”, where some tales are quoted about its fall, I won’t, the quote about 200 rubles per dollar, which Biden said publicly, was enough. This is approximately the level of operating with facts and reality, that is, fabulous incompetence.

But here is a quote from the White House about the new sanctions:“The US Department of Commerce will take initial action against companies engaged in procurement in support of Russia by adding several companies around the world to a list of legal entities that will prevent these companies from buying US-origin goods and technologies, such as semiconductors.”

The only question is who exactly gets intolist of restrictions. In 2019, Huawei settled there, now the company has a number of exceptions and is afraid to get there again. But today they do not supply a large number of goods to Russia, in particular, there are no smartphones. The infrastructure is delivered in crooked paths to avoid those same sanctions. But they can also be imposed just like that. Huawei is trying to sell its products through AliExpress, they arrange sales, but the channel is quite small, it does not make good weather for the market.

Of those who actively supply consumergoods, I will note Xiaomi, as well as BBK Corporation (OPPO, Vivo, realme). The latter company is directly connected with the Chinese Ministry of Defense and carries out a number of military contracts. But since they are also suppliers to US companies in the same field, blocking them looks unlikely. Only Xiaomi remains as one of the potential players that continue to work in Russia.

But the scheme of deliveries to the Russian marketit looks like Xiaomi does not directly ship the goods, it is done by the partners of the company, and they take it in third countries. It is possible to impose sanctions on a company only because someone wants it that way, no explanations are needed here. International law is dead, but the moment is such that the escalation of relations with China for America does not look like a good idea. Any significant company for China, if it gets on the US sanctions list, will immediately receive support at home, and the struggle will reach a new level. The aggravation of the conflict between the US and China will go to a new round. Is America ready for this in the current state of the economy? Absolutely not. On the other hand, shooting at their own feet is their favorite pastime.

I do not see those who can be blamed forthis moment. For example, Intel, like Nespresso, "does not sell" its processors on the Russian market. Now the scheme looks bizarre, the Russian customer “loses” documents describing what products he needs. On the part of Intel, management "loses" in some public cloud the description of these products and the cost in a third country. After confirming that the price is right, the third country suddenly receives a large volume of ordered goods, and immediately a buyer appears for them. A local company that suddenly wanted to build a couple of world-class data centers in a godforsaken hole. I wonder if Intel will be blamed for violating the embargo? I think no. And there are a huge number of such examples, because the semiconductor business directly depends on the sales market today. There is less and less money backed by real purchasing power, and Russia is ready to buy goods, and at the same time, goods are expensive. Hence the ineradicable desire to supply and sell everything necessary. Let me remind you that we have long gone through the heat of passions such periods as during the Cold War, when the USSR received anything from American companies through third countries. Today the intensity of passions is higher, but capitalism works the same as before, everyone needs money. But the attitude to the fact that officials can do something, set someone inside America as an example to everyone else and punish, is completely different. No one believes that there will be some kind of persecution before the 2024 presidential election, everyone needs money, and it doesn’t matter how companies earn it. The main thing is that they continue to support politicians in hard currency. It turns out that duplicity has become the norm for the market - we publicly condemn and do not participate, in fact we try to do everything exactly the opposite.

Any pressure on companies outside of America will backfirethat they will be protected by their governments. America's enemy is China, so the choice of companies is possible there. For example, you can assign DJI, which is already under sanctions, a company responsible for something. But there are no direct deliveries of drones, and how this will change the situation as a whole is unclear.

Every month the market will find the rightgoods, and gradually the variety of them on the shelves will grow. Accordingly, prices will gradually fall, which will lead us to a situation where supply and demand will balance each other, a difficult moment will be lived through.

Take seriously the threats of Americanofficials are no longer allowed, this is another round of how they tear the Russian economy to shreds. This time, however, there is one caveat, we are hitting back, and the world is gradually plunging into chaos - hunger, inflation is rapidly gaining momentum, the absence of many essential goods and the shutdown of production. I don’t think that Russia is experiencing a sense of satisfaction from this chaos, but the fact that we are not swallowing all these sanctions, but simply pursuing our policy, already gives a lot. As a finishing touch, I will give a tiny story that has fallen out of sight of many people. In Bolivia, for several years, Russian corporations have been promoting the idea that they want to participate in lithium mining. Along with Argentina and Chile, this country has huge reserves and needs money to mine this metal. With the growing demand for electric transport, lithium mining in Bolivia is becoming a strategic objective. But apart from Russia, no one can pull off such an infrastructure project (China is not interested, America has no funds for it due to the political structure). In total, it turns out that very soon Europe will ask Russia for the supply of not only gas and food, but also lithium, since it will become difficult to buy it on the open market. And without any threats and sanctions, our country is simply tightening the screws for everyone who does not know how to behave. As for me, this is a pleasant moment.

And what to change our resources for is also a questionopen. In the end, everyone understands that it is possible to sell resources with a burden, when the other side will be forced not only to pay money, but to give goods in exchange for the same gas. And this is the reality of the very near future, when former partners will be forced to violate their own trade embargo, since they have nowhere to go.

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