The word "quarantine" in the title I used inas a collective image. Different regimes have now been introduced in different countries, but whatever they are called, it all boils down to one thing: setting restrictions on citizens, the economy, business, entertainment, services, etc. Many will not be able to recover from the shock and will close, people will lose their jobs or will earn significantly less and, as a result, spend less. Definitely, the world will be different for many years to come. Can we get back to the usual model of consumption and doing business? Now nobody knows this, but nothing prevents us from speculating on this topic. What will we do.
So, let's start with you and me. Most today have problems at work. And although the government on TV demanded that employers continue to pay their salaries, but at the same time send everyone on vacation - common sense tells us that miracles do not happen. If we talk about state employees (those who receive a salary from the state), everything is more or less clear there. As they say, the treasury pays. But what to do with the private sector? Almost the entire service sector was closed. This applies to catering services (restaurants, cafes, bars) and the entertainment sector (cinema, theaters, shopping centers) and services (shoe repair, computer equipment, fitness centers). After a couple of days in Moscow and the Region, the regime of movement by passes is introduced. I have no doubt that this will positively affect the stoppage of the number of people infected (we see this in the example of China, for example), but where will the business get the money to pay salaries and commercial rents?
Have you thought about where people spend money during the global pandemic? We share our opinion on this matter.
Over the past 3 months, the US Labor Exchange has registered more than 16,000,000 (16 million) people. This is a record for the last 20 years.
Contrary to popular belief, a Russian businessmanit’s a snickering fat man under 120 kg of weight, it’s not. For most, stopping a business for 1-2 months means actually closing it. There is no working money (what customers bring) for salaries and rents for more than a month. Normal business conditions do not involve storing money on accounts for a rainy day. Money should work. They are invested in goods, business expansion, opening new branches, etc. As long as there is an influx of money supply - all is well. As soon as everyone is put on isolation and the influx of money stops, the business closes. You can even beat your head against the wall and say that “business must pay salaries,” but if there is no money, then there are no salaries either.
All this leads to the fact that many people will losework, and those who are able to save it will begin to be much more respectful of money and their accumulation. Who knows what else we can expect in the next month / two / half a year / year? Subconsciously or consciously, we will begin to save money on such force majeure circumstances. And in our country it already was. And more than once. And not two. And not even three. But over time, people relax, forget the past and begin to live in the future. This is normal, this is how the human psyche works.
Imagine if our psyche weren’tsmoothed out negative emotions over time. The death of a loved one, the pain of loss or separation. What we experience is very close to the heart. If over time these emotions were not dull, then by 25-30 years a person would have just gone crazy. This is a normal defensive reaction of our body.
The labor market itself will sag pretty much. Closed establishments cannot be revived with the click of a finger. And the problem is not that there is no money for their new discovery, but that people would rather spend their money accumulating them. Well, just in case.
But not for everyone, a pandemic is bankruptcy. There are a number of companies that have hit a decent jackpot to isolate citizens around the world
What about tourism? In my opinion, it is still worse with him than with the sphere of entertainment. Most countries, having coped with coronavirus, simply do not want to take risks and let tourists in. It should be understood that in different countries the situation can differ from each other very radically. How soon will Finland agree to let tourists from Spain and Italy go? And when will the US open the borders for tourists from China? No answer. Anyway, bye. We do not even know what will happen after the restriction measures are removed within one country. Everyone will go out, go to cinemas, parks and begin to closely contact each other? What do we get in the end? The second wave of infections? There is also no answer.
More recently, I, what is called “on the fingers,” explained what happens to our body when the coronavirus enters it. I recommend reading it!
So that my opinion would not be the only one in this article, I asked my colleagues to answer the question “How do you see the development of the world order after lifting the restrictions within 1-2 years?”
According to the most optimistic forecasts, the growth ratepandemics will begin to subside in the summer. As for the full recovery and elimination of the consequences, this can take up to two years. This year, someone will be able to recover, someone will not - the hardest thing will be for offline business and everyone connected with it. Millions of people lost their jobs, and it is logical that in a month they will not find a new place. Enterprises with state support will feel the smallest consequences, now there are many of them, both in the Russian Federation and in the world.
Personally, I find myself thinking that I became afraidcrowds of people, and I don’t even know when I can again go in without fear and walk around the mall. Or go to the cinema, where there is a full indoor hall of people. If we start gathering with friends, then only at home, until I am ready to go to cafes / restaurants and other places of entertainment.
Most likely, even after a pandemicwill end, we will no longer be able to travel, as before, at least a few years. The borders will open, but a wave of tests and medical examinations awaits us all when visiting a country. But I do not presume to say when we get to this. If come, it will be good.
Alexander Bogdanov, author of articles Hi-News.ru
Obviously, people in the USA, China and Europe will changeyour habits. They will not go to the cinema, I will visit restaurants and cafes less. Congratulations to Netflix and UberEats, you hit the jackpot! And of course, social networks will soar wildly. If we cannot brag about new things offline, we will do it online. Ticktok, Instagram and other services will gain a huge number of new users. Both the consumption of content and its creation will grow.
Navreno will skyrocket the popularity of car sharing - goin a car is better than sitting in a subway car and afraid to catch the virus. Although I do not fully understand how the authorities will be able to ensure distance in office buildings, in production facilities, in transport. It seems just unrealistic. And to work in masks and gloves and even more so a scenario from parallel reality.
Many will remain in remote work. It is convenient, cheap, and companies do not have money to rent offices. And people on the remote can pay less. A Moscow company can hire a person in Tomsk and pay much less than the capital market.
Another question: how quickly do we forget the pandemic? Here we must look at historical research.
And the economy will simply be different. the new era of dotcoms is coming. Online will steer over offline, for me it is obvious.
Mikhail Korolev, founder of Hi-News.ru
Actually the question raised in the titlevery difficult. I urge you to share your opinion in the comments to the publication, or discuss this in our Telegram chat. Give your forecast for the future month / year / five years.