General, Research, Technology

How the weather is predicted and who does it

There are not many things left in the world thatman has not yet been able to subjugate himself, or at least get as close to this as possible. For now, he can only adapt and learn to predict these events and phenomena. This is how intelligence and forecasting services are born. One of them is meteorological. In the end, we all live on the bottom of the fifth ocean, which is our atmosphere, and it is very important for us what unrest is happening in it. Of course, it is not always possible to predict the weather, but the methods by which this is done are very interesting. In this article we will try to collect all of them together, and at the same time briefly talk about popular methods of weather forecasting and the history of the meteorological service.

Everyone is waiting for the summers, but when it comes only meteorologists know.

Content

  • 1 Who deals with weather forecasts
    • 1.1 What Roshydromet does
    • 1.2 Weather Prediction History
  • 2 As predicted by the weather
  • 3 How weather forecasters differ from meteorologists
  • 4 How to predict the weather according to folk signs
    • 4.1 Prediction for pets
    • 4.2 Weather prediction for plants
    • 4.3 Prediction of insects
  • 5 Can you believe the weather forecasts

Who deals with weather forecasts

First of all, it’s worth talking about whodeals with weather forecasts in Russia. Abbreviated as meteorologists or the maximum meteorological service. However, officially the name of this organization sounds like “Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring”. The official abbreviation is Roshydromet.

Few people believe it, but according to the report itselfRoshydromet accuracy of their forecasts reaches 96%. The question is what is considered a true forecast. What variation is allowed? In any case, you will not praise yourself - no one will praise.

The structure is an executive bodyand is under the authority of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation. In addition to carrying out the functions of managing state property and rendering public services in the field of hydrometeorology, it also solves many other problems.

What does Roshydromet do

The main tasks of Roshydromet include:

  • Supervision of work on the impact on meteorological and geophysical processes;
  • State registration of surface waters;
  • Maintaining the state water cadastre regarding surface water bodies;
  • Maintenance of the Unified State Fund of Data on the State of the Environment;
  • Formation and maintenance of the functioning of the state monitoring network;
  • Organization and termination of observation posts;
  • State monitoring of atmospheric air;
  • Licensing of certain types of activities.

In addition, it is Roshydromet that ensures the fulfillment of obligations of the Russian Federation under international treaties. Including the UN Convention on Climate Change and the Antarctic Treaty.

Antarctic Treaty providesthe demilitarization of Antarctica, its use for exclusively peaceful purposes and its transformation into a nuclear-weapon-free zone. The agreement entered into force on June 23, 1961 after it was signed by 12 states that became the original parties.

Weather prediction history

The day of creation of the weather prediction service is considered April 25, 1834. It was on this day by decree of Emperor Nicholas IIn St. Petersburg, the Normal Magnetic Meteorological Observatory was established. The first weather bulletin was published in Russia on January 13, 1872. Many consider this date to be the birthday of forecasting services.

One of the first weather observatories.

Creation of special weather prediction servicesled to the fact that other structures began to be created on their basis. For example, forecasts were very much in demand in the army, which led to the creation of the Hydrometeorological Service of the country's armed forces. Later there was even a division by types of troops and even services such as the “rain gauge network of the Ministry of Railways”.

During the revolution and civil war wasa severe blow to the weather prediction service. Over 2,000 observation posts and laboratories were closed. They were later restored. At the same time, even world wars did not have a serious impact on world forecasting services, since they were needed on the contrary and in some ways even continued to develop.

Since we are talking about wars, let's see if a nuclear war can affect the water world?

As the weather predicts

First of all, it’s worth understanding thatno country’s meteorological service can predict the weather without the help of their foreign colleagues. For this, there are special associations and mechanisms of interaction at the international level.

Thousands, if not tens of thousands, of various objectsscattered throughout the Earth and even go beyond it. Among them are probes, ground stations, marine stations, seismic sensors, special satellites and much more. All this works well only in conjunction.

Approximately such equipment is located around the world and collects weather data.

For example, every day at the same timeGreenwich, all weather stations on the planet must make various measurements, including temperature, wind speed and direction, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloud cover and rainfall. All information is gathered together and not only allows you to make forecasts, but makes it possible to simply observe the current weather in the world.

The son asks the father of the meteorologist:
“Dad, do your predictions always come true?”
- Yes, son, only the place and time do not always coincide.
Old joke

Because, as mentioned above, the sensors andthe stations are in different places and at different heights, a lot of data is being collected. Balloons provide information about the upper atmosphere, satellites can provide data on clouds all over the planet, marine stations collect information on the high seas, and ground stations - on the coastal zone, in the mountains and other places of land.

To get such a picture, we need the joint work of meteorological services around the world.

Information processing is carried out in several of the world's largest data centers. They are located in Washington, Melbourne, Moscow and several other cities of the world.. Only together can they calculate the movement of air masses on the planet (and their speed) and make a weather forecast for several days in advance.

After that, it remains only to put information ona special card and as quickly as possible to transmit weather data to the end consumer through the media. This is the only way to save people and households from natural disasters and help entrepreneurs (primarily farmers) avoid additional costs.

So that we can avoid this, meteorologists work.

Often an inaccurate forecast is simply untimely transmitted to mass space information

Many try to study long-term forecasts,to plan a vacation, a trip to nature or the opening of a motorcycle season. Such forecasts have a not very high level of accuracy. Accuracy in the region of 95 percent or more can be ensured only with forecasts 2-3 days in advance. And then, the variability of the weather can break all the theoretical calculations. Forecasts for a longer period are largely based on statistical data, taking into account the current situation in nature.

How weather forecasters differ from meteorologists

Many people confuse such concepts as “weather forecaster” and “meteorologist”. At the same time, representatives of these professions are often offended by such confusion. Especially meteorologists.

Meteorology - “reasoning about celestial phenomena” (from dr. Greek “Celestial phenomena” and “science”) is a scientific and applied field of knowledge about the structure and properties of the Earth’s atmosphere and the physical and chemical processes occurring in it.

Based on the definition, a meteorologist can be considereda scientist who studies and analyzes processes in the atmosphere as a whole. Based on the results of his observations, he gives his conclusions about the state of the atmosphere and the processes occurring in it.

Science meteorology itself is so general thatSpecialists in it are trained in completely different disciplines, the main of which are an agrometeorologist, climatologist and meteorologist. There are other specialties, among which there is synoptic.

Synoptic - A meteorologist who specializes in analyzing atmospheric processes and predicting future weather conditions. Including making long-term forecasts.

The main tool of the weather forecaster isa synoptic map, which is an overlay of weather data on a geographical map. So you can see in detail what the weather is now in different parts of a large territory. Based on this, forecasts are made.

This is what the synoptic map looks like.

It is also worth noting that on TV about forecastsweather forecasters say, not meteorologists. The second option as a whole is also true, but the first is more accurate. The use of the word “meteorologist” in this vein is comparable to saying that a person reads the weather - too general a concept. By the way, the word weather forecaster comes from the Greek “weather forecaster”, which means “observing everything together”. That is, they do a weather review. Now it all fits together.

In general, you need to be careful with the news. For example, How do policy news harm your health?

How to predict the weather according to folk signs

Of course, the easiest way to open a site or seea news release that tells you everything about the weather for tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. But there are folk signs, which are sometimes very accurate. Believe it or not, everyone’s private affair, but people have collected these observations for hundreds and thousands of years. Of course, they are not directly related to the forthcoming cooling or drought, but they may have one common reason.

Prediction for pets

Many have noticed how a cat curls into a ball. So, if at the same time she tries to cover her nose with her paw or tail, according to popular signs, it is worth waiting for colds.

It is also worth waiting for colds if a dog or cattries to lie closer to a battery or other heat source. Apparently, they stock up on heat. If in the cold roosters start screaming very early, this is a thaw, and hens crow in the middle of the day to rain.

If the seagull flies its tail forward, then the wind is strong - a joke about weather predictions.

Guessing the weather and other animals. For example, if a goose is standing on one paw, then this is to frost. There will be many of them, but they are mostly known by the villagers. Still, city dwellers often bring dogs and cats. Moreover, this has advantages that we wrote about earlier.

Plant Weather Prediction

In the city it is difficult to engage in such forecasting, but among the main signs, the following can be noted:

  • Dandelion squeezes its ball to the rain.
  • The bindweed closes its corolla before the rain, and on the eve of a sunny day it necessarily opens it even in cloudy weather.
  • Clover brings the leaves together before the storm.
  • Flowers of rabbit cabbage remain open at night - before the rain, close - to good weather.
  • Before the rain, the flowers of a white water lily close.
  • Before the rain, for 15-20 minutes, the honeysuckle bushes begin to exude a strong odor.
  • The yellow flowers of acacia, in anticipation of near bad weather, part the pistils and in the center of each flower a brilliant drop of honey is shown.

Insect prediction

There are predictions about insects, since they, along with plants, are interested in one or another state of climate affairs. Accordingly, they change their behavior very much. Here are some examples:
By warming, the web is woven in a southerly direction, by cooling, in the north.

  • The spider is trying to reduce the web to the wind.
  • The spider sits motionless in the center of the web - to the weather.
  • The spider is hiding in the corner - to the rain.
  • Few spiders - to change the weather.
  • Many spiders - to good weather.
  • If mosquitoes fly out in the sun in late autumn, the winter will be mild.
  • A nocturnal butterfly in front of the cold wind seeks refuge in the warmth.
  • If grasshoppers strongly chatter, then in the coming days there will be good weather.
  • Cicadas lively chirps in the evening - to good weather.

Examples can be given for a very long time and evendevote entire books, but we are still a scientific site, so we will get by with general ideas. If you will be interested in diving into this topic in more detail, signs can be easily found on the Internet.

Is it possible to believe the weather forecasts

As mentioned above, the accuracy of forecasts forlarge cities make up about 95 percent or more. This is a very good indicator, but information must be received on time, then the forecast will be as accurate as the forecast for the death of our civilization, which we already wrote about. Yesterday’s forecast will no longer be a forecast.

And this is how television announcers work. Sometimes they are weather forecasters, but very rarely full-fledged meteorologists.

Personally, I’ve almost not watched recentlyforecasts, since I roughly understand what will happen, and more precisely I look at the fact in the morning before leaving home. Studying long-term forecasts is a thankless task, as they are often mistaken, but sometimes it is interesting to get acquainted with them.

The only thing that really matters in regards toweather for the day, so it does not fall into a hurricane or just under heavy rain. The Ministry of Emergency Situations successfully copes with the first, which even too often warns of possible emergency incidents through SMS messages. In the second case, you can often understand yourself whether it is worth taking an umbrella with you. Well, just in case, have one more at work. So you will be "covered from all sides."