General, Research, Technology

How many people in the world would have been infected with CoVID-19 if not for quarantine?

I don’t know about you, but some of my friendsstill deny the severity of the spread of CoVID-19. Moreover, it seems to me more and more that people decided to arrange something like mass walks - the weather is good outside, why not go outside without a mask and other personal protective equipment? The answer to the question is obvious - if self-isolation and social distance are not respected, the number of people infected with the new coronavirus will grow exponentially. As of April 7, the death toll from SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus worldwide exceeded 75 thousand people. However terrible these numbers may be, things could have been much worse. So, according to scientists, up to the end of April, up to 240,000 people can die in the United States. And this is taking into account self-isolation and quarantine measures. But what would happen without them?

Coronavirus-infected temporary assistance centers in Central Park, New York

Worst case scenario for the CoVID-19 pandemic

In fact - and we already wrote about it - the presentersepidemiologists have long warned that the world cannot escape a new pandemic of a dangerous disease. So, the epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who helped to overcome smallpox, ebola and other equally dangerous diseases, in 2006 predicted the truly catastrophic consequences of a pandemic of a new viral disease. Moreover, the fears of epidemiologists were so serious that in 2011, with the help of scientists, the film “Infection” was released on the screens to draw the attention of the general public and governments. However, even the star cast failed to draw attention to the problem. Read more about what this film is about and why it is worth watching, read in our material.

But what would happen if, after the discovery of a newcoronavirus governments of different countries did not take decisive action? Scientists from Imperial College London presented the first global assessment of the effects of coronavirus on March 26. According to the results, in the absence of quarantine and self-isolation, CoVID-19 would have infected approximately 7 billion people in 2020 alone - and it is almost 90% of people on earth. Given the number of infected, approximately 40 million people would die. Moreover, it is important to understand that not a single healthcare system in the world could cope with this situation.

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Carefully monitor your health. Unfortunately, one cannot underestimate the threat.

The only thing you can do to notTo allow catastrophes is to implement strategies aimed at drastically reducing the rapid growth of new infections. This means that people should minimize contacts and change their usual way of life. However, even despite such “draconian” measures, the situation in each country can develop in different ways, depending on the demographic situation and income level, the authors of the study write. This means that in some countries a pandemic can develop in a different way and in some countries the losses can be horrific. At the same time, delays in the implementation of strict measures (quarantine, self-isolation) can endanger millions of lives. Are you still not scared?

Global threat

By analyzing the severity of the disease and howpeople interact with each other, scientists predicted the further development of the pandemic and its impact on 202 countries. The results of the study are further evidence that all possible efforts must be made to slow the spread of the disease and reduce mortality among the population. The analysis showed that introducing social distance to mitigate the effects of the outbreak halved the number of alleged deaths.

In other wordsif 40% of the population respects social distance and self-isolation, this will reduce the number of deaths worldwide by about 20 million in 2020.

However hospitals will still be crowdedby patients. This is exactly what is happening in New York, Italy and Spain. According to Science News, it is very difficult to make accurate predictions, because at the moment we know too little about the new coronavirus. However, according to other experts, as the virus spreads, it will have a great impact on countries around the world and will inevitably lead to the death of many people.

By staying at home you save the lives of others. Don't forget about it

Do you maintain self-isolation and how do you ratethe situation with the spread of coronavirus in your hometown? Share your answer in the comments to this article and join the discussion of this and other topics in our Telegram chat

How to resist coronavirus right now?

No matter how different the assessments of specialists, allthey agree on one thing - you need to act at an early stage, when the number of deaths in a population is still relatively small. COVID-19 death counts can help officials better understand how widespread the disease is and determine when to advise residents to limit contact with other people and stay at home. In the event that world leaders begin to actively suppress the spread of CoVID-19 from the moment of the first case detected in the line, this will help save about 30.7 million lives. And delays in implementing strategies to suppress transmission of infection, on the contrary, will lead to an increase in the death toll.

Let me remind you that young people are also not insured.from the severe course of the disease and death from strangulation. Thus, according to a recently published report by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), people aged 20 to 44 years are also hospitalized with severe cases of CoVID-19. A similar situation is observed in our country, and in France a girl of 16 years old recently died.

Let's not forget that the new coronavirus- This is not seasonal flu, it is much, much more dangerous. Recently, editor-in-chief Renat Grishin wrote a wonderful article on denying the dangers of a pandemic and manipulating statistics - be sure to read it and take the habit of checking information. Without exaggeration, today not only your life, but also the lives of other people depends on this. Be healthy.