Electric cars have become a symbol of the fight against changeclimate, but on the road to large-scale approval is still their high price. A new study by BloombergNEF shows that by 2022 they will be cheaper than cars with internal combustion engines. Ten years ago, few could have predicted the rapid growth of the electric vehicle industry. In 2010, there were about 12,500, but today there are already five million on the roads - and their sales account for only a few percent of the total number of car sales.
This was due to the steady decline in prices andbattery sizes, as well as a healthy push from Tesla, which pushed the rest of the automotive industry to prioritize the development of electric vehicles. But despite the progress, these cars are still lagging behind their “smoking” and “smoking” fellows in price, range and time of “refueling”.
When will electric cars become cheaper?
The last two points remain controversial -The range of most electric vehicles is measured in hundreds of kilometers, which is much farther than most people travel in a day, although concerns about the range still cause concern to many consumers. But the difference in price is often enough to make all but the most ardent defenders of the environment waver.
And this is quickly changing, however. BloombergNEF energy analyst Nathaniel Bullard noted that in 2017 it was believed that electric cars would be cheaper than cars with ICE in 2026. Last year, the estimate shifted to 2024, and this year by 2022 for large transport in the European Union.
This is because the fall in prices for lithium-ionBatteries leads to a decrease in the total cost of vehicles. If a few years ago batteries could cost up to half the cost of a car, today they make up about 33% of the total cost and this should drop to 20% by 2025. The same dynamics is likely to lead to an increase in the range of electric vehicles, as well as adding excavators, boats and airplanes with electric motors to this trend.
The industry has several problems on the horizon. While innovation has played a large role in its rapid transformation, a huge proportion of success comes from the support of governments that are trying to “decarbonize” the transport segment.
In the US, the two leading manufacturers of electric vehicles -Tesla and General Motors sold more than 200,000 cars, after which the federal tax breaks that made the start more affordable began to decline. However, now it is not quite clear what the future movement will be on the part of the existing administration.
The Chinese government recently cutsubsidies for electric vehicles, which played a crucial role in overtaking the US as the largest electric vehicle market in the world. This step was due to concerns that companies relied too much on concessions than on innovations, and therefore by 2020 the subsidies will be completely removed.
Weak government support can deliverunder the threat of a beneficial circle of constantly decreasing prices, which lead to an increase in demand, and, consequently, an economy of scale requires from manufacturers increasingly cheap batteries and automobiles.
But despite all possible obstacles, momentumthe market seems unstoppable. Regardless of when exactly electric cars cross the threshold where conventional automobiles with internal combustion engines will become cheaper - three, five or seven years - the transport segment will be set up radically.
Follow the development of the electric car market in Zen.