General, Research, Technology

46 years ago, a computer model predicted the death of our civilization. And the forecast seems to come true

In the early 1970s, the world entered a golden agetechnology. We sent robotic apparatus into space, created computing and much more, and life expectancy continued to grow. However, many were skeptical and believed that this state of affairs could not last long. So, in 1973, a group of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) developed a mathematical model called World3. It was based on World1 - the work of a mathematician named Jay Forrester. The objective of the model was to model how the growth of population and industry, food production and limited natural resources will affect life on Earth. According to the results, our civilization will cease to exist by 2040.

Perhaps after 30 or 40 years from the familiar world there will be no trace

How much is left for us?

Work "The Limits of Growth" (The Limits of Grow)is one of the best-selling books today. It examined five factors that are thought to affect the following aspects of life on Earth: population growth, agricultural production, depletion of non-renewable resources, industrial production and environmental pollution. The reason this old study reappeared in the news is because the Australian news agency published its original story telling about the study. It is noteworthy that some of the predictions have already come true. For example, the model predicted that planet pollution would reach a point that would pose a threat to people, and quality of life would peak and then decline. However, despite the fact that the study has undergone a number of changes in subsequent years, World3 has not been launched since 2004. When the work was first published, the model put forward only general assumptions regarding some factors.

It is interesting: Our civilization may disappear by 2050

And what threat to our civilization do you consider the most dangerous?

However, the model showed that, so farthe population of our planet continues to grow, we pollute the environment and continue to tirelessly exploit natural resources, as if tying a loop to our own necks. The decline of civilization does not necessarily happen in 2040, it may happen in 2050, but the model got the correct idea that our actions have tangible long-term consequences. At least today, scientists agree that the level of pollution of the Earth, including plastic waste, has reached a critical point.

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The pollution of the planet looks really scary

So, some researchers agree,that if nothing changes, then humanity has no more than 100 years of life left. Thus, we need not only to stop what we are doing wrong, but also to take decisive measures to reverse the damage that has already been done to the environment. Otherwise it will be too late. Also, do not forget about the rapid climate change, which already today has a negative impact on the life and health of a large number of people around the world. It turns out that if the end of the world does not come in 2040, this does not mean that it will not come later. In the end, recently 11 thousand scientists warned the public about the climate emergency, so you can panic.