Do you love heat?Or, on the contrary, stay away from the Sun? Regardless of the answer and personal preferences, scientists believe that more and more sunny days await us. Thus, the heat wave in northwestern Europe will become more intense, and in the Pacific Northwest the temperature in many places already exceeds the seasonal norm by 6 degrees Celsius. At the same time, a whole series of typhoons hit the other side of the globe, and wildfires, hurricanes and floods are ahead. According to experts, extreme heat waves that have hit the planet in recent years will become an integral part of the coming summer around the world, including Russia. According to the latest weather reports, the summer of 2023 in our country could be the hottest in the last 150 years.
Anthropogenic climate change climate change associated withhuman activity. As a result of economic and industrial activities, a huge amount of hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, methane and solid substances enter the atmosphere.
- 1 Abnormal heat
- 2 Hottest year on record
- 3 Extreme heat 2023
- 3.1 Oceans and the El Niño effect
- 4 Summer 2023 in Russia
Just a couple of decades ago, problems caused byclimate change were not so obvious. The turning point was probably the summer of 2010, when a heat wave hit the Northern Hemisphere, including Europe, North America and Asia. In Russia, the heat has become one of the causes of massive fires, accompanied by thick smog in cities and regions. Moreover, its duration and intensity were unparalleled in more than a century of observational history.
This weather anomaly, alas, was not the only one.“We are literally living from one temperature record to another, with heatwaves becoming more widespread and longer lasting. The researchers explain what is happening with the release of huge amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, which leads to an increase in the average global temperature on Earth.
You have probably noticed that high temperatures persist even at night, and heat waves occur in different parts of the planet at the same time. Extreme heat also leads to droughts and massive wildfires that have engulfed Canada, China and South Asia even though summer has not yet arrived.
Fire departments in Alberta are fighting 92 forestfires, almost a third of which were "out of control" according to official figures, and by May 16, about 19,500 people had been forced to flee their homes, according to CBC News.
Abnormal heat hit the Chinese provinceYunnan (with a temperate climate), the temperature in which has risen to 40 degrees Celsius. Experts note that the heat came prematurely and could cause significant damage to crops. Another example is the situation in Cordoba, Spain, where on April 29 a record high temperature was recorded in the entire history of observations.
More on the topic: Extreme heat may become the norm for Europe in the near future
Hottest year on record
According to the World Meteorologicalorganization (WMO), the last eight years have been the warmest on record in the world. Thus, in 2022, the average global temperature was about 1.15°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). Rising temperatures have led to massive droughts and devastating floods that have affected millions of people and severely damaged the global economy.
In 2022, we are facing weathercataclysms that have claimed too many lives, undermined food, energy and water security. Vast areas of Pakistan have been flooded and a prolonged drought in Africa could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe, WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas said.
WMO experts use six internationaldatasets to provide a reliable estimate of temperature, including data based on climatological data from observation sites, ships and buoys in global marine networks. The same data is used in the annual State of the Climate Reports, which inform the international community about global climate indicators.
Every decade since the 1980s has been warmer than the last. This trend, according to researchers, will continue, with the hottest years in the past eight years being 2016, 2019 and 2020.
The WMO report also includes datasets from the re-analysis by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and its Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Large volumes of data, as well as a combination of observations with modeled values, make it possible to estimate temperature at any time and in any place around the globe, even in data-limited areas.
Extreme heat 2023
By examining temperature trends in the mosthot summer day across northwestern Europe and comparing the data with trends in average summer temperatures, the authors of a paper published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters concluded that between 1960 and 2021, northwestern Europe warmed twice as fast (by 0.6°C) than the regional average on summer days. This means that the region may experience more extreme hot days in the future.
The trend we have identified is not reflected inmodern climate models. The inability to model the rise in extreme temperatures in northwest Europe means that heat-related climate change impacts could be much worse than expected, the authors write.
The results of the work also showed that betweenFrom 1960 to 2021, temperatures in the UK increased by about 0.25°C per decade (compared to more than 0.5°C per decade in most of Spain). Consequently, currents of increasingly hot air that are carried northward from these regions will result in rising temperatures, often exceeding a threshold that can be classified as “extreme”.
Climate change is causing Spain and North Africa to get warmer faster than northwestern Europe.
The authors of the study note that extremeheat can exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular disease and increase the risk of heat stroke, placing additional strain on health and emergency services. Earlier, my colleague Ramis Ganiev talked about health problems that may arise due to abnormal heat, do not miss it!
The oceans and the El Niño effect
Another factor that can aggravate the heat is thissummer is the so-called El Niño effect (ENSO) – a recurring climate cycle that has a major impact on global weather patterns year after year. It alternates between a cool phase called La Niña and a warm phase called El Niño. According to NOAA data released on May 11, El Niño is likely to manifest itself in the coming months and last until winter.
Experts say El Niño is trendingraise global temperatures by an average of 0.2 degrees Celsius. Among the reasons for the increase in temperatures, one cannot fail to note the state of the oceans. The map below shows how oceans around the world experienced record high temperatures in April:
Read more: Scientists have seen from space signs of a sharp increase in temperature on Earth in the near future
The world ocean is the main indicator of the health of the planet but as a result of climate change changesits structure, flow and even color. Recall that global temperature rise limits the mixing of water layers in the ocean, reducing the amount of oxygen and nutrients on which the life of the inhabitants of the ocean depths depends.
The deterioration of the state of the oceansmakes it difficult to predict future events. At the same time, according to the data of 2019, the oceans absorbed 90% of the heat, but by 2100 they will absorb 5-7 times more (if the amount of harmful emissions into the atmosphere is not reduced).
Don't Miss: What's Happening to Earth's Oceans?
Summer 2023 in Russia
May 20, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center RomanVilfand said that by the end of the month, the July heat is likely to come to the central regions of Russia. “Preliminary calculations show that with a probability of more than 80 percent, the night temperature from May 25 to May 28 will be 10–15 degrees, and the daytime temperature will be 23–28,” the forecaster said.
At the same time, temperatures characteristic ofThe climatic norm of July in central Russia was already recorded on May 18. In St. Petersburg, however, the abnormal heat came even earlier - on May 15, the temperature reached a maximum for a 10-day period - 23.9 degrees.
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Some experts have previously suggestedthat the coming summer will be one of the warmest on record. Thus, according to climate change expert Mikhail Yulkin, “everything will depend on whether heat waves from the Atlantic reach Russia.”
Forecasters, however, are in no hurry to agree withclimatologists. Ultimately, meteorology is not an exact science and it is simply impossible to make a long-term forecast for several months in advance. Thus, Alexander Shuvalov, a specialist at the METEO prognostic center, believes that high anomalous temperatures in the summer of 2023 are possible only in the south of European Russia and in the extreme south of Siberia.
This is interesting: The true scale of climate change is worse than previously thought
And yet, regardless of who is right, andwho is not, abnormal heat is a serious threat to health, and especially for residents of megacities. Health experts remind you that the best way to survive the heat is to prepare for it in advance. Read more about how to keep yourself and your loved ones healthy here, do not miss it!