General, Research, Technology

Where in the world can a new pandemic begin?

In 2015, during a TED talk, Microsoft founder Bill Gates announced that the world is completely unprepared for outbreaks of dangerous diseases... The coronavirus pandemic has confirmed his words -to date, more than a million people have died from the disease worldwide. Due to the fact that many countries have neglected the health sector all this time, the number of infections is still on the rise. Recently, Bill Gates shared that in the near future the world may be affected by an outbreak of another disease and mankind needs to prepare for it now. Scientists already know what factors can trigger the onset of a new pandemic and have found out where in the world it can start with a greater degree of probability.

Scientists already know two factors that could lead to a new pandemic

You can watch the same talk by Bill Gates on the official TED website. But read the article first.

When will a new pandemic start?

Bill Gates spoke about the possibility of a new pandemic in a podcast with singer Rashida Jones and wrote in the Gates Notes blog. In his opinion, in the worst case, an outbreak will occur in the next 3 years but if humanity is lucky it will happen only after 20 years... He also noted that if people learn a lessonfrom the coronavirus pandemic, the next outbreaks will be defeated much faster. He cited the action of South Korea and Australia as an example of the correct response to the coronavirus outbreak. According to him, the authorities of these countries quickly tested people for infection and promptly isolated them from healthy people. This approach helped slow the spread of the disease.

The world would have coped with the coronavirus faster if patients were found and isolated on time

It is important to note that the possibility of starting a newpandemics in November were warned by the World Health Organization. The organization explained that countries with reliable infrastructure and preparedness for an emergency were the fastest to take action to contain the spread of the virus. Therefore, national authorities should be more prepared for the next disease outbreak. After all, they appear unexpectedly - did you imagine during the celebration of 2020 that it would be so difficult? Hardly.

See also: Is the world ready for another pandemic?

Where will the new pandemic start?

Scientists already know in which countries it can happenoutbreak of the next dangerous disease. In their opinion, it will occur in cities where medicine is poorly developed and forests with wild animals are located nearby. Taking these factors into account, they decided to calculate the regions of our planet that are most at risk of pandemics. The results of the three-phase scientific work were published in the journal Elsevier One Health.

It's important for people to stay away from wild animals

First of all, scientists found cities that are closelyborder with wild areas. They found out the population density of these cities, as well as the number and variety of animals in the forests. In the image below, regions with a high animal-to-human ratio are highlighted in yellow.

Regions with a high animal-to-human ratio

At the second stage of scientific work, researchersidentified regions with the least developed medicine. It is believed that in such places it will be most difficult to recognize a new disease and stop its spread. At the third stage, scientists found out where the most global air transportation networks are present in our planet. This is also a very dangerous factor, because through such places, diseases can quickly spread throughout the world. These areas have been highlighted in red.

Regions in which a new pandemic may begin are marked in red

Ultimately, it was found that with morethe next outbreak of a dangerous disease is likely to occur in Africa or Asia. In most cities in these territories, medicine is poorly developed, but at the same time, air travel is carried out. With all this, people most often come into contact with wild animals. And this is very dangerous, because the coronavirus was also transmitted to humans from animals. Anyway, we got many dangerous diseases from wild animals: AIDS, Ebola, malaria, smallpox, plague, and so on.

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In the end, it turns out that countries urgentlyyou need to invest in medicine. This should be done right now, because we are still far from complete victory over the coronavirus. If humanity manages to solve this global problem, then the next outbreaks can be eliminated much faster. You can read about how the world will change after the outbreak of the coronavirus in this article.